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[VegasPunter]

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[VegasPunter]

1st pick > Nevada -2.5 Odd: 1.91 (Collage Football).

REASON FOR PLAY: ***Non-Conference Game of the Year*** Nevada heads home after starting the season 0-2 but those losses came against some top quality competition. The Wolf Pack have played the nation�s 15th ranked schedule after two weeks and now will be facing a Colorado St. team that is very overrated. The Rams have played a schedule ranked 105th in the country after going against 1-AA Weber St. (163rd) and Colorado (104th). Their statistics are severely skewed because of this and the line is reflecting that.
I know the loss of running back Kyle Bell was going to be huge and Colorado St. right now has not running game to speak of. Colorado's defense smothered the Rams rushing attack, limiting the Rams to 15 yards on 34 carries. While the sacks were a big part of that story, the fact that leading rusher Gartrell Johnson gained 17 yards on 14 carries points to the lack of production on the ground. Their rushing offense is last in the MWC and 98th nationally, averaging 82 ypg.

Running back Robert Hubbard will likely start against Colorado St. and his presence will be a much needed boost in the balanced offense of the pistol attack. The senior did not start and played sparingly on Saturday after missing too much practice time with a bruised knee and sore ribs last week. He had 71 yards on 12 carries, mostly in the second half. Quarterback Jeff Rowe has been decent but he can play much better and will do so here against the untested Colorado St. defense.

One has to wonder how good this Colorado St. defense really is. One week after limiting Weber State to 86 total yards, the Rams held Colorado to 146 yards. That's the first time in Sonny Lubick's 14 seasons that one of his teams has produced back-to-back games yielding fewer than 200 yards. And that is where it is going to end. Last year the Rams were third to last nationally in run defense, had just 19 sacks in 12 games and allowed an average of 26.8 ppg. This is easily their biggest test.

Good as they have been, the Rams have yet to recover an opponent�s fumble or make an interception so it shows their lack of aggressiveness. Colorado St. leads the nation in total defense and that is simply an illusion. Statistics do not mean much at this point in the season when schedules are completely different for a lot of teams as far as strength goes. Looking at it the other way, Nevada is 100th in total defense and 112th in scoring defense and those rankings are based on the competition and not the potential.

Nevada has not lost confidence because of those early losses. The players said it's time to snap out of the funk they've been in so far this season and the first step is improving the morale around Wolf Pack Park. Heading home is the biggest factor. Nevada has not lost at home since last year's season-opener against Washington St. and if ever there is a time for the Wolf Pack to snap its current 0-7 record against Colorado St., this is precisely the time and spot for it to happen. Nevada gets into the win column, and rather easily. Play Nevada.

[VegasPunter]

2nd pick > Navy +1 Odd: 1.91 (Collage Football).


Analysis:

Despite last weekends complete meltdown against Massachusetts, Navy has continued to be impressive this season. Despite, fumbling a whopping seven times (lost three), an interception, muffed a punt and completing just one pass, the Midshipman still managed to hold on the beat Massachusetts, 21-20. Over the past two (2) seasons, losses have been rare for the Midshipmen as they are riding a current 13-4 run in which half of the defeats came by three points. That means that when navy does lose, those defeats create some bitter memories, which means a concerted effort to turn the tables when given the chance. Now they have the opportunity to make amends for a bitter 41-38 loss to the Cardinal at Annapolis last year, and it is hard to imagine better matchups for them to exploit then this Stanford stop unit. Stanford (0-2 SU/ATS) is off to a dreadful start losing to San Jose State last week after getting blown out at Oregon. Coach Walt Harris still has a long way to go to get this team playing competitively even with 16 returning starters, 10 on offense. The defense allowed a staggering 342 yards rushing against the Spartans for a hefty 7.0 yards per carry. This was after it gave up 298 yards on the ground to Oregon. Cardinal QB Trent Edwards did throw four touchdown passes while finishing 18 of 28 for 233 yards with one interception.

Its pretty clear how Navy will attack this game, as I expect them to again pass the ball less then 10 times over the course of this contest. So given the fact that Navy will run the ball virtually 90% of their plays, we have no other choice but to back this Navy squad no matter what the price, especially when we consider the following. Navys intricate option schemes, will create havoc against a Stanford team that plays in a pass-oriented conference. Even worse, this Stanford unit that has been absolutely horrendous against the run as both Oregon and San Jose State piled up a 640 yards at 7.1 per carry through the first two weeks. But it is not just a weakness up front, the Cardinal defense is also allowing a staggering 76.7% completions in those same games. Stanford is a pathetic 20-57-2 SU and 18-54-2 ATS at home when the other team wins the rushing yards and the last time Navy was out rushed was November of 2003, 28 games ago. Indeed, The Middies, who have rushed for at least 200 yards in each of their last 22 games and are an impressive 47-12 ATS as an underdog when they hit the 200 yard mark. Included in those 59 games for the Midshipmen is a 38-13 ATS log on the road, a 38-10 ATS mark with revenge and a 29-4 ATS record as a road underdog. That also ties nicely into the Middies' 54-18 ATS mark in games away from home when they outrush an opponent, including 34-7 ATS as a dog. Contrast that with Stanford, which has allowed 300+ rushing yards in both of its games this season. Remember when I said that Navy (has rushed for at least 200 yards in each of their last 22 games), well is Stanford gives up 200 yards or more on the ground then they are 24-58 ATS. Included in those 82 games is a 4-20 ATS record as a favorite, a 9-28 ATS at home and a 2-14 ATS log as a home favorite. The only argument for back the Cardinal would be that this is game will mark the opening of the rebuilt Stanford Stadium so maybe that will be some inspiration. However, given the fact that Midshipmen have a very strong Bay area following that should help to negate their minimal home advantage. Kill!
Saturdays Forecast: Stanford 24, Navy 41
PLAY ON NAVY +1

[inversionist]

i cannot find the option +1 for Navy , i can only see -1 for navy.

[VegasPunter]

Hello there, lines are changeing all the time, and are diffrent from sportsbook to sportsbook.

In football there isnt any diffrence between -1 and +1 as it very rear that games end by 1 point diffrence.

Alot of sharp money moved on Navy and thats why the line changed.

Hope you got it anyway.

[Pooper Scoopers]

Ill tell you what. Anyone who believes this clown is a moron. I live in Vegas and anyone who can not even spell college (collage) or different (diffrence) is no expert in sports betting. Remember it is very rear any games end by a 1 point diffrence. Go back to school you idiot.

[TravisBickle]

Ill tell you what. Anyone who believes this clown is a moron. I live in Vegas and anyone who can not even spell college (collage) or different (diffrence) is no expert in sports betting. Remember it is very rear any games end by a 1 point diffrence. Go back to school you idiot.


Pooper Scoopers it is glaringly obvious that this was a cut and paste job, it is obvious that the person who wrote those writeups was clearly not VegasPunter.

I also happen to know the name of the capper who wrote the Nevada writeup and his name is Matt Fargo.

[kingmod]

too many of these threads pop everyday. as long as they lose they go and create another name.

no one should pay for picks. if they are really worthy of asking money then the should post atleast 100 picks with 1.91 odds are higher and get a success rate of 65% or better. Or show 250 Picks and show a 62.5% or better. If not, shut the fuk up and stop asknig for money.