High Strike Rate Lay System

[scruffula]

2.10 LINGFIELD EGYPTIAN LORD 15 £13
2.35 NEWMARKET EKHTIAAR 9.4 £22
3.55 LINGFIELD BLACK SEA PEARL 10 £13
4.55 NEWMARKET LOCH VERDI 7.4 £22
7.40 NOTTINGHAM DEBORD 15 £13
7.50 FOLKESTONE HYTHE BAY 6.8 £22
8.20 FOLKESTONE RUSTIC GOLD 9 £22
8.40 NOTTINGHAM TRUMP CALL 7.4 £22

Currently my bank from this system stands at £867.50 from a starting bank of £500.

This profit has been achieved in 3 days. So far this system has a 100% strike rate.

Horses are not laid above 15 on betfair (liability too high).

[scruffula]

2.10 LINGFIELD EGYPTIAN LORD 14-----5TH-----
2.35 NEWMARKET EKHTIAAR 9.4 £22-----11TH-----
3.55 LINGFIELD BLACK SEA PEARL 10 £13-----5TH-----
4.55 NEWMARKET LOCH VERDI 7.4 £22-----7TH-----
7.50 FOLKESTONE HYTHE BAY 6.8 £22-----5TH-----
8.20 FOLKESTONE RUSTIC GOLD 9 £22-----5TH-----
8.40 NOTTINGHAM TRUMP CALL 7.4 £22-----6TH-----

Notice that one horse was dropped as the odds were too high. That horse that was dropped also lost though.

[scruffula]

Another 100% very successful day!

The Betting Bank now stands at a whopping £1003.50.

What I now propose to do is split the bank into 2 and reduce stakes accordingly.

So I will now have a reserve bank of £503.50 and an 'in-play' bank of £500.

This will help to protect winnings.

[scruffula]

1.30 Newmarket Soccer Jackpot 14.5 £8
2.00 Newmarket Let Us Prey 13 £8
2.35 Newmarket Something 9 £13
2.45 York Sesmen 14.5 £8
3.00 Ascot Love On Sight 9 £13
3.10 Newmarket Amadeus Wolf 11 £8
3.20 York Red Romeo 8.4 £13
4.55 Newmarket My Arch 15 £8
5.05 York Matty Tun 9.6 £13
6.50 Hamilton Keisha Kayleigh 12 £8
7.30 Chepstow Fun In The Sun 11 £8
9.00 Chepstow Rebel Pearl 4.8 £25
9.20 Hamilton Malinsa Blue 8 £13

[nadalbg]

Good luck, it sounds very good

[scruffula]

Thanks, if you can live with the higher liability then yes the results are good!

1.30 NEWMARKET SOCCER JACKPOT 14.5 £8-----5TH-----
2.00 NEWMARKET LET US PREY 13 £8-----4TH-----
2.35 NEWMARKET SOMETHING 9 £13-----3RD-----
2.45 YORK SESMEN 14.5 £8-----7TH-----
3.00 ASCOT LOVE ON SIGHT 9 £13-----9TH-----
3.10 NEWMARKET AMADEUS WOLF 11 £8-----12TH-----
3.20 YORK RED ROMEO 8.4 £13-----9TH-----
4.55 NEWMARKET MY ARCH 15 £8-----LAST-----
5.05 YORK MATTY TUN 9.6 £13-----9TH-----
6.50 HAMILTON KEISHA KAYLEIGH 12 £8-----4TH-----
7.30 CHEPSTOW FUN IN THE SUN 11 £8-----11TH-----
9.00 CHEPSTOW REBEL PEARL 4.8 £25-----8TH-----
9.20 HAMILTON MALINSA BLUE 8 £13-----8TH-----

Another 100% day, how long can this good form continue?

Reserve Bank = £503.50
In Play Bank = £646 :party smi

[scruffula]

2.10 YORK FULL VICTORY 13 £10
3.00 CHESTER BARBIROLLI 15? £10
3.15 YORK EMIRATES SKYLINE 15? £10
3.50 YORK SKHILLING SPIRIT 8.6 £16
4.35 ASCOT HOH HOH HOH 9.4 £16
5.15 CHESTER FRANKSALOT 9 £16
5.20 NOTTINGHAM MITANNI 11 £10
6.05 SALISBURY TAMINO 11 £10
6.50 HAMILTON NO GROUSE 11.5 £10
8.05 SALISBURY COUNT CEPRANO 10.5 £10
9.20 HAMILTON TOMORROW'S DANCER 10 £10

The two bets with question marks are currently just over the 15 mark so they may be too high to bet on. I will include/exclude based on sp+12% as I have to go out today and cannot monitor the prices.

[scruffula]

2.10 York Full Victory 13 £10-----3rd-----
3.00 Chester Barbirolli 14 £10-----2nd-----
3.50 York Skhilling Spirit 8.6 £16-----3rd-----
4.35 Ascot Hoh Hoh Hoh 9.4 £16-----2nd-----
5.15 Chester Franksalot 9 £16-----5th-----
5.20 Nottingham Mitanni 11 £10-----abandoned-----
6.05 Salisbury Tamino 11 £10-----1st! 9/2 Fav-----
6.50 Hamilton No Grouse 11.5 £10----5th-----
8.05 Salisbury Count Ceprano 10.5 £10-----9th-----
9.20 Hamilton Tomorrow's Dancer 10 £10-----5th-----

[scruffula]

Ok, I will put the loss down as is just to see how devastating a win can be.

Reserve Bank = £503.50
In Play Bank = £634

As can be seen it hasn't really dented the bank too much and this was at a lot higher price than its SP.

[wild dream]

hi,
are you selecting fav or those somethere in between?

[scruffula]

Something inbetween, Wild Dream. The favourites tend to win a lot making it difficult to make fast consistent profit.

This sytem I use selects lowish - mid priced horses to lay.

Unfortunately, the horse that won yesterday was backed heavily into being a favourite which would of put me off laying it anyway. For the sake of people who put all bets on in the morning I have kept this as a loss at the odds offered at time of posting the selections.

Hope this helps.

[scruffula]

2.20 Haydock Hope Road 9.6 £16
3.50 Haydock Nicada 6 £16
4.20 Haydock Bluebird's Dream 15? £10
4.50 Haydock Breaking Shadow 8.6 £16

[wild dream]

you are honest. :) when a horse was being backed into the fav symbolising in the money selection, it is best to stay clear of it. but i guess this type of thing or losses cant be helped at times.

[scruffula]

I like to think I am honest, thanks.

Todays results:

2.20 Haydock Hope Road 9.6 £16-----LOST-----
3.50 Haydock Nicada 6 £16-----LOST-----
4.20 Haydock Bluebird's Dream 15? £10-----NO MATCH-----
4.50 Haydock Breaking Shadow 8.6 £16-----LOST-----


Reserve Bank = £503.50
In Play Bank = £682
:woohoo:

[scruffula]

2.30 Ayr Triple Shadow
3.30 Ayr River Thames
4.00 River Falcon
4.30 Ayr Shandelight
5.00 Ayr Dotty's Daughter
8.50 Wolverhampton Cornus
9.00 Windsor Avoca Dancer
9.20 Wolverhampton Mr Grand Lodge

[loud]

hmm looks very nice, I'm in

[wild dream]

hi,
care to share your selection criteria with me?

[dtm]

No stakes and odds any more?

[dtm]

NO stakes and odds any more?

[Cris1985]

Excelente Señor Scruffula. Are this selections for sell?

Buena suerte, Cristóbal

[scruffula]

Sorry about the odds and stake not being on the selections today. I was a bit rushed this morning.

Basically, if the odds are from 10 to 15 bet 1.5% of bank
from 5 to 10 bet 2.5%
under 5 bet 5%

As for the selection criteria I am afraid I cannot divulge this as I will be offering a tipping service soon which these selections will form a part of.

Once my website is up and running I will let you know. (I may even offer a discount to talkgold members.:ro_emote_ )

[scruffula]

Not such a great day today with a loss of £55.

I forgot to mention the rule of any of the first 3 in the betting forecast being a non-runner means don't bet.

Good job really, as 2 wins would be quite bad. There was a non runner in the last race but I cannot remember whether it was in the top 3 or not so I will assume it wasn't.

Reserve Bank = £503.50
In Play Bank = £627

Still holding our own on this system. Need a few more days with no winners to give it a boost again!

[scruffula]

Sorry forgot to post the results.

2.30 AYR TRIPLE SHADOW-----3RD 10/1-----
3.30 AYR RIVER THAMES-----1ST 6/1-----oops I just noticed on this that one of the top 3 in the Betting Forecast was a non-runner. That would make this bet void(I don't think I mentioned that)
4.00 RIVER FALCON-----LOST BF ODDS 14-----
4.30 AYR SHANDELIGHT-----4TH 11/1-----
5.00 AYR DOTTY'S DAUGHTER-----7TH 17/2-----
8.50 WOLVERHAMPTON CORNUS-----8TH 6/1-----
9.00 WINDSOR AVOCA DANCER-----LAST 22/1-----NO MATCH I THINK
9.20 WOLVERHAMPTON MR GRAND LODGE-----1ST 7/1-----:ghostface

[scruffula]

3.00 Brighton Perfect Treasure 8.6 £16
3.45 Beverley Sir Loin 15 £9
4.00 Brighton Wrighty Almighty 9 £16
4.30 Brighton Piano Man 7.8 £16
5.00 Brighton Recalcitrant 8 £16
5.15 Beverley Sofia Royale 12.5 £9
6.15 Kempton Arfinnit 7 £16
7.15 Kempton Good Effect 8 £16
7.25 Yarmouth Taboor 14.5 £9
8.45 Kempton Misaro 15 £9
9.15 Kempton Sir Duke 10 £9

[Cris1985]

3.30 AYR RIVER THAMES-----1ST 6/1-----oops I just noticed on this that one of the top 3 in the Betting Forecast was a non-runner. That would make this bet void(I don't think I mentioned that)


No problem Señor Scruffula

gracias for sharing

Cristóbal

[scruffula]

3.00 BRIGHTON PERFECT TREASURE 8.6 £16-----3RD-----
3.45 BEVERLEY SIR LOIN 15 £9-----13TH-----
4.00 BRIGHTON WRIGHTY ALMIGHTY 9 £16-----2ND-----
4.30 BRIGHTON PIANO MAN 7.8 £16-----TOP 2 NR SO NO BET (LOST THOUGH!)-----
5.00 BRIGHTON RECALCITRANT 8 £16-----ONE OF TOP 3 NR SO NO BET(LOST THOUGH!)-----
5.15 BEVERLEY SOFIA ROYALE 12.5 £9-----11TH-----
6.15 KEMPTON ARFINNIT 7 £16-----5TH-----
7.15 KEMPTON GOOD EFFECT 8 £16-----3RD-----
7.25 YARMOUTH TABOOR 14.5 £9-----4TH-----
8.45 KEMPTON MISARO 15 £9-----1ST 10/1-----*PRICE CAME IN TOO MUCH NO BET
9.15 KEMPTON SIR DUKE 10 £9-----5TH-----


Reserve Bank = £503.50
In Play Bank = £727

[scruffula]

3.20 Lingfield Players Please 8 £18
3.30 Catterick Diminuto 7.4 £18
4.20 Lingfield Proposal 13 £11
5.00 Catterick Amanda Carter 8.6 £18
7.50 Kempton Blue Line 13.5 £11
8.50 Kempton Prince Of Charm 10 £11
9.20 Kempton Sovereignty 10.5 £11

[DaveyT123]

Been watching this for a few days. Sorry M8 not sure what you mean by price came in too much with Misaro in the 845 Kempton last night. You put the bet up and now you have introduced another rule or guideline that you hadn't mentioned before (you left out the 6/1 winner the other day too with arcane aftertiming !).
Re: Misaro was 15.0 on BF until a very short while before the off and only came in to 12.5 and won at 10/1 SP- that's hardly 'too far' for an relative outsider is it? A relatively small weight of money or market adjustment at the front end of the market can cause the price of a mid-field runner to shorten by such a small amount. You are also (apart from the winners you have chosen to exclude) quoting successful lays to full stakes without BF commish. Hardly a fair trial at the moment is it?

If you want to be taken seriously either publish all the rules or stick to what you put up prior to the race - don't cherry-pick after the fact.

Davey

[scruffula]

You know what, I had real doubts about putting that down. I thought someone would probably think as you do so what I will do in order to satisfy the negative ne'er do wells I will adjust the betting bank to show this loss.

Also, in reference to Betfair commission the only reason I haven't put it on is to keep the figures tidy. I do understand your chagrin but you really do seem to be a very angry person.

May I just remind you that you do not have to follow these tips, or read them, in fact you don't even have to look at this thread if you don't want to. I am merely trying out these selections publicly. I am not in the business of misleading people so I will make the adjustsments necessary to the figures and see how we go from there.

Will that satisfy you?

[scruffula]

Reserve Betting Bank = £503.50
In Play Betting Bank = £623.50 (after taking off 12.5 winner!)

Now to adjust for Betfair commission.

Winnings so far are £627 (started witrh a bank of £500)

Without doing an individual 5% reduction for each horse (will take too long, sorry!) I will reduce winnings by 5%.

I hope this satisfies our resident critic:rant:

Reserve Betting Bank = £500
In Play Betting Bank = £595.65

[DaveyT123]

I thought it was a genuine chance for you to clarify exactly what would qualify and what would not, there was absolutely no need for such a defensive post Scruff.
And as to being angry, well, totally wrong there too. I think that that each of us reading your thread are interested in the results and would welcome an open and honest debate on the results. I can't see where any offence was intended or why you should feel the need to escalate any of my points beyond that as the omission of Misaro was a curious one that surely needed a comment?

You did though, put up Nicada and Hope Road on Sunday last both of whom came in more than Misaro last evening (percentage wise) did you not? And my enquiry was just that, an enquiry in an attempt to clarify, nothing more. What is the cut off point generally? And no, I'm not following them with my own money as perhaps you have incorrectly assumed also?

If you've seen it as personal critisim then I'm sorry about that, but, posting on forums takes a bit of a thick skin sometimes and always a maturity.

[scruffula]

Sorry, my bag.

I'm a little quick to snap these days. I think it's my age. You are right about those selections, sometimes I do not have time to check all the details thoroughly regarding prices etc so some errors may occur.

I am going to proof my results to racing index for a while before starting this as a tipping service as its a relatively unbiased and fair way for people to see how a system performs.

All I will say at this point is if you do decide to put money on these selections try to get the best price possible and be aware of any top 3 non-runners.

I am not totally decided on the best staking plan for this system yet but will keep you posted if I change anything.

Once again, sorry to snap your head off. I hope I can bring some more losers over the coming weeks.

Scruff

[DaveyT123]

No apology need Scruff, no offence taken and certainly none intended. As a newbie to the forum we all look to things which will make the daily grind a little more bearable so hope this continues to show such good returns!

GL, Dave

[scruffula]

Thank you for your kind words. On a more sombre note, one of my selections has only gone and won (how inconsiderate!) - Diminuto (I backed this the other week and it won for me then at 10/1 - I really shouldn't have doubted it).

So it looks like that ruins the profit for today.

Seems to be going through a slightly sticky patch at the moment, hopefully it will turn around soon.:gooddog:

[scruffula]

3.20 Lingfield Players Please 8 £18-----5TH-----
3.30 Catterick Diminuto 7.4 £18-----1ST-----
4.20 Lingfield Proposal 13 £11-----3RD-----
5.00 Catterick Amanda Carter 8.6 £18-----NR-----
7.50 Kempton Blue Line 13.5 £11-----13TH-----
8.50 Kempton Prince Of Charm 10 £11-----12TH-----
9.20 Kempton Sovereignty 10.5 £11-----10TH-----

Profit Today = -£53.20

Not such a good day today.

Reserve Betting Bank = £500
In Play Betting Bank = £542.45

[scruffula]

Folkestone 5.55 Ruby's Dream 9.4 £17
Leicester 3.15 Music Note 11.5 £10
Leicester 5.30 Limonia 12 £10
Sandown 6.40 Drifting Gold 8.4 £17
Sandown 7.15 Aegis 15? £10
Sandown 8.20 Six of Diamonds 7.2 £17

[scruffula]

Folkestone 5.55 Ruby's Dream 9.4 £17-----2ND-----
Leicester 3.15 Music Note 11.5 £10-----7TH-----
Leicester 5.30 Limonia 12 £10-----5TH-----
Sandown 6.40 Drifting Gold 8.4 £17-----7TH-----
Sandown 7.15 Aegis 15? £10-----5TH-----NO MATCH WENT OFF AT SP 16/1
Sandown 8.20 Six of Diamonds 7.2 £17-----1ST DEAD HEAT(ONLY HAVE TO PAY OUT HALF)-----


Another day ruined by one winner.

Still, we made a small profit of £1.24.

Reserve Bank = £500
In Play Bank = £543.69

[scruffula]

Nottingham 2.15 Exhibition 1.69 £34
Nottingham 2.50 Cornerstone 9.8 £17
Newbury 4.10 Snake Skin 9.6 £17
Nottingham 4.55 Danawi 15? £10
Newmarket 5.45 Montchara 15? £10
Pontefract 6.35 Let Us Prey 1.81 £34
Newmarket 7.15 Tabaret 9.4 £17
Pontefract 7.35 Final Dynasty 9.8 £17
Newmarket 7.50 Cold Quest 14.5 £10
Pontefract 8.10 Harry The Hawk 12.5 £10
Newmarket 8.20 Dream of Fortune 4.8 £34
Newmarket 8.50 Colinca's Lad 12.5 £10
Pontefract 9.10 Mulligan's Gold 15? £10

[scruffula]

Nottingham 2.15 Exhibition 1.69 £34-----1ST-----
Nottingham 2.50 Cornerstone 9.8 £17-----8TH-----
Newbury 4.10 Snake Skin 9.6 £17-----ABANDONED-----
Nottingham 4.55 Danawi 15? £10-----ABANDONED-----
Newmarket 5.45 Montchara 15? £10-----8TH-----
Pontefract 6.35 Let Us Prey 1.81 £34-----1ST-----
Pontefract 7.35 Final Dynasty 9.8 £17-----1ST-----
Newmarket 7.50 Cold Quest 14.5 £10-----3RD-----
Pontefract 8.10 Harry The Hawk 12.5 £10-----3RD-----
Newmarket 8.20 Dream of Fortune 4.8 £34-----9TH-----
Newmarket 8.50 Colinca's Lad 12.5 £10-----10TH-----
Pontefract 9.10 Mulligan's Gold 15? £10-----NR-----

Shocking day, I am wondering whether the poor weather (isn't it crap?) is affecting these results.

Profit Today = -£98

Reserve Bank = £500
In Play Bank = £445.69

[scruffula]

Newmarket 2.00 Medicea Sidera Don't lay above 4 £29
Ripon 2.30 Nylla Don't lay above 4 £29
Newmarket 3.05 Annemasse 15? £9
Newmarket 3.35 Folga 15? £9
Ripon 4.00 Cotton Eyed Joe 13.5 £9
Ripon 4.35 Damelza 9.2 £15
Newmarket 5.15 Raccoon 12 £9
Lingfield 6.30 Ravarino 4.5 £29
Haydock 7.10 Zabougg 3.5 £29
Lingfield 7.30 Eastern Gift 3.1 £29
Lingfield 8.00 Tintorero 6.8 £15
Lingfield 8.30 Royal Orissa 7.6 £15