Bookmaker Strategy

[mucho69]

i was just thinking of an idea, tell me what you guys think.

i read post from a guy that worked in a call center for a major bookmaker, he mentioned that bookmakers hardly ever have every game they offer balanced perfectly for a guaranteed profit for them, almost all games and matched a bookmaker was exposed to some risk, his post was talking about some other point he was trying to make, but he did mention the above.

So my idea, if there was a way to know how much money a bookmaker has matched on an event (is this information that hard to obtain?) i mean betfair shows you how much is matched on each player or event, and follow the bookmaker.

Example: book @ 104%

team A 1.5 $25,000 matched
team B 2.7 $3,000 matched

team A wins; bookmaker pays $12,500 and keeps $3,000 from team B

A LOSS OF $9,500 FOR THE BOOKMAKER

team B wins; bookmaker pays ($3,000 x 2.7)$8100, but keeps $25,000 from team A
e
A PROFIT OF $16,900 FOR THE BOOKMAKER


so overall the bookmaker is risking 9,500 to make 16,900 if this is a successful bookmaker and makes profit year after year, if you risked the same amount and followed the whole book you would actually make more(no employees, lease, salarys, insurance 50% overhead) you get to keep everything.

So is this this far fetched or can it be somehow done, comments please,

[spyder2k4]

Lets face it
If the odds are in favour of team A winning then he is probably more likely to lose money.

So your system doesn't work considering your a lot more likely to lose then win.
Plus imagine the startup capital required

[mucho69]

Lets face it
If the odds are in favour of team A winning then he is probably more likely to lose money.

So your system doesn't work considering your a lot more likely to lose then win.
Plus imagine the startup capital required


so i guess the sportsbooks always loose money in the long run, wake up and smell the coffee:lolol:

[videofish]

sportsbooks always win money in the longrun. because people are greedy and they choose many times the big big odds... that mostly lose

plus that there are lots of surprises,,, small odds are winners just 50-60% of the cases,,,,

[mucho69]

the comments im getting, you guys have no clue obviously at what my strategy is about

[talkgo]

maybe because you did not explain it well.

there are times when bookies lose money... but on the longrun indeed they make very nice profits... probably profits of millions at the end of each year

[mucho69]

ok, ill try to clarify what i was saying in my original post above

the example i gave, bookmaker loses money if team A wins, and makes money when team Bwins, so we also bet on team B to win, we try to mirror the sporstbook by being exposed to the same risk as they are, but you have to bet the whole book, all the events they have money on that day, you wouldnt have to bet $9,000 on team B but maybe bet $90 (proportionaly less), the idea is to copy them everyday, because as i mentioned above, they never have a game so perfectly balanced to the point of making their 4% or so guarantee, remember this is just my idea and in order for this to work you would have to know how much money the book has matched on each team or person for all their events every day, betfair shows you how much is matched in this manner(but they make money on comission)so you would probably need someone that works at the sportsbook for this kind of info, but remember having this info is not illegal because there is never any guarantee for you to win, in the long run though you would proportionaly make the same as the book but without all the overhead, i hope this clears it up, and im just looking for some comments on the topic, dont reply if you dont understand what i mean it confuses everybody and goes into a different topic

[Nicholas]

mucho69,

I think that is an interesting way to look at it, but remember even if you do not know what a sportsbook has on each side, remember those numbers may represent a wide range of point spreads. For example NFL game lines get listed SUnday night and are wagered and changed all the way up until kickoff. SO you can't really match what they did by doing that. ALso I know it is a fallacy to believe that sportsbooks do have close to even money on any event. The reason for that is simple, betters bet for whoever they want. They usually bet the favorite. They usually bet teh home team. SO for example if you had a Tennis match between a Brit and an American, more people would bet the AMerican at a US casino, and more would bet the Brit in the UK. But each book may still have the same line or close to it to avoid an obvious arbitrage opportunity. I do liek how you are thinking though and would be happy to discuss theories/opportunities here or by PM.

[mucho69]

this would not be easy to organize, but the result i think would be worth it