USDJPY forecast for July

GFSignals · #1 07-02-2009, 09:48 AM

A professional, skilled and active trader is taking a view back at USD/JPY in June. He’s also analysing the market and giving forecast for July:

"Beginning from the 2nd part of June I’ve been keeping Buy order on USD/JPY. Analyzing the history of that currency pair I can say that it won’t fall down to 95.73, because it happened only twice in the last 20 years..." Continue reading

jeff15 · #2 07-03-2009, 06:38 AM

yes GFsignals that's right it won't fall because in 8 out of the past 10 years, the U.S. dollar appreciated against the Japanese Yen in the month of July. Based upon seasonality, we could expect further strength in USD/JPY.

July is a very unique month in the currency market because not only do the currency market have strong cases of Seasonality, but it also happens to be the worst performing month for certain currencies.

GFSignals · #3 07-07-2009, 09:38 AM

Yeah, the market can easily turn upside down in a moment because of quick changings in financial situation in the world.

forerx · #4 07-07-2009, 04:02 PM

the market can easily turn upside down in a moment

jeff15 · #5 07-08-2009, 02:24 PM

Yes this could happen in rare case probability is less.

jeff15 · #6 07-09-2009, 08:11 AM

9th July,2009
The USDJPY had a big bearish movement yesterday. The pair moved more than 300 pips, bottomed at 91.79 and closed at 92.70. On h4 below we can see that after break below 94.60 we had a strong downside momentum. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 90.90 area. However CCI just cross the -100 line up on h1 chart so watch out for a potential upside rebound testing 93.25 resistance area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

anjali · #7 07-14-2009, 11:36 AM

The Yen is under pressure as a result of upcoming Japanese national elections in August. The ruling party had some local election losses this past Sunday, which is sparking fears about change that might affect their economy.

This period of uncertainty will be around until it is clear who will win the election, and only the success of the current government will take the fears out of the trading community.

jeff15 · #8 07-15-2009, 10:28 AM

USD/JPY 15 July 2009

Daily Pivots: (S1) 92.89; (P) 93.32; (R1) 93.93; More.

USD/JPY rebounds further today and at this point, intraday bias remains mildly on the upside as long as 92.69 minor support holds. Further rise could still be seen. But after all, price actions from 91.79 are treated as consolidation in the larger decline from 96.96 only and hence, upside of the current rise is expected to be limited below 94.87 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 92.69 will flip intraday bias back to the downside and break of 91.79 low will confirm that whole fall from 98.87 has resumed for 161.8% projection of 98.87 to 94.87 from 96.96 at 90.48 next.

anjali · #9 07-22-2009, 08:05 AM

Thanks for the update jeff....We all can see that the euro is going nowhere in particular vs. the broader market, but is rallying by default vs. the rapidly weakening Japanese Yen.

It is interesting that the key testimony from Mr. Bernanke arrives as yield curves steepen due to a sharp sell-off in long bonds.

If Mr. Bernanke is able to pull off a successful defence of Fed policy and the long end yields subside again sharply, then the JPY crosses may pivot and sell off sharply again. Note the key Ichimoku cloud resistance coming in soon just above 135.00.

I am keeping my eye on it.....

Alibubble · #10 07-23-2009, 08:11 PM

Thanks for the analysis. It's always good to keep up with whats going on even if you don't actively trade a specific pair. What happens to one pair can easily affect another.