English Premier League Predictions.

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Liverpool V Fulham 02 May 2012

Liverpool Preview:
Liverpool have lost three of their last five matches at Anfield in the league, results which have heaped pressure on boss Dalglish. Their record at Anfield stands at W5 D9 L3 for the season, and while their defence has been standing up quite well, conceding on average just 0.82 goals per game, going forward they have managed only just over a goal per game at Anfield. Dalglish. shook the side up a little bit, with Steven Gerrard coming back in for Maxi Rodriguez, while Andy Carroll was left out of the squad completely. Carroll was withdrawn because of an injury, but is fit to rejoin the squad for Tuesday. It was Gerrard linking up with Suarez which caused most of the damage to Norwich. The scoreline may have flattered Liverpool a little bit, because Liverpool scored from their only two shots of the first half, and both were capitalised on from mistakes in the Norwich back line. The Reds fell victim to a 1-0 defeat at Craven Cottage earlier in the season, so this is a chance to make amends for that. Suarez took his season tally to eleven and may be worth riding in the goalscorer markets. They may have an eye on the FA Cup, but they need to appease their suffering home fans.

Fulham Preview:
Fulham will get the ball down and try to play through the middle of the park. The Liverpool defence doesn’t give that much away at home, but Fulham could really use some width effectively. For some reason Fulham just can’t score on the road. They have managed only eleven away goals all season, and that is just an average of 0.65 per game. They have failed to score in over 50% of their away matches, and it is all in stark contrast to their very good form at home. Fulham’s away record stands at just W3 D5 L9 for the season, a definite area which needs to be addressed. Clint Dempsey netted the winner at Craven Cottage against Liverpool earlier in the season, and he really is their big danger man if they can get him into the game. But Fulham have lost three of their last four away matches and failed to score in all three of those defeats. They are a tidy football side, but you can’t look past some terrible away form really.

Form: Liverpool LDWLW, Fulham WWDWL

Stats:
Liverpool have won just one of their last seven home matches
The Reds have picked up six 1-1 and three 0-0 draws at Anfield this season
Fulham have scored in just one of their last five away matches
Fulham have failed to score in six of the last nine matches against Liverpool

Odds: Euro 2012

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Stoke V Everton 01 May, 2012

Stoke Preview:
At the Britannia Stadium this season, Stoke have ran up a W7 D6 L4 record, which isn’t bad at all. They are undefeated in five, but again going forward they have only managed 1.2 goals per game at home. Stoke defence has not been as tight as it probably could be, and they average one goal a game against at home. Stoke do battle well, and have held both Manchester City and Arsenal to draws at home recently, and if they could develop more of a killer instinct in front of goal then they would be even more of a handful. There is a bit of rebuilding up front to do for next season, but now it is about earning a top ten finish. Robert Huth popped up with a winning goal at Goodison Park earlier in the season for the Potters and they will give the Toffees a good run for their money. While seeing them beat Everton is a bit of a stretch perhaps, given Everton’s form, a draw is never too far away from the books with Stoke.

Everton Preview:
Jelavic scored a brace against Fulham, taking his tally to seven in the last six matches. Jelavic is one of those composed strikers, who always seems to have time to just stroke the ball into the back of the net instead of blasting it in. He has definitely been a sharp signing for David Moyes, and he is spearheading their drive towards a top seven finish. Everton have drawn their last two away matches though, a 2-2 at Norwich, and then that thrilling 4-4 draw at Old Trafford against Manchester United. Everton’s away record is W5 D6 L6 and they have boosted their numbers to 1.24 goals per game on average away from home, but they are leaking goals on the road though. That probably won’t be too much of a factor against the low scoring Stoke, but Everton concede on average 1.4 goals per game on the road. Everton have lost only one of their seven league matches away from home now, so they are in very good shape at the moment. They have the greater firepower than Stoke, but a draw in this fixture wouldn’t be too much of a surprise.

Form: Stoke LWDLD, Everton WDWDW

Stats:
Everton have scored four goals in each of the last three league matches
Everton’s most frequent away result this season have been 1-1 draws
Stoke are unbeaten at home in their last five
Stoke’s most frequent home result this season have been 1-1 draws

Odds: Euro 2012

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Chelsea V Newcastle

Chelsea Preview: Chelsea have to win this fixture if they want to line themselves up with a shot at fourth place. A win would put them two points clear of Newcastle, but if Spurs beat Bolton on Wednesday, Chelsea would still be a point back from their London rivals. So it is going to be a tense finish, but the thing about Chelsea is that they have been in big match mode for a long time now, ever since the Champions League quarter finals came around. Di Matteo is utilising his squad well, Fernando Torres is looking more and more confident and the Blues are pushing forward on all fronts. Chelsea cruised to a 3-0 win over the Magpies at St James Park earlier in the season and will be favourites on Wednesday, especially after Newcastle were hammered on the weekend by Wigan. Lose this and fourth place will probably be out of the question for Chelsea. Will the Di Matteo touch guide them through this crucial match as well? Chelsea have a W11 D3 L3 home record this season and are undefeated in seven games at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea average over two goals per game at home and have scored first in 63% of their matches.

Newcastle Preview: Newcastle have won two and lost three of their last five away matches, and overall have a W7 D3 L7 record on the road this season. They haven’t picked up an away drawn in their last ten, so a result is very probable on Wednesday night, one way or another. Newcastle have the big threat from Papiss Cisse, Demba Ba, Cabaye and Ben Arfa and that is good enough to beat any side in the league. But how much will their confidence have been dented in that Wigan defeat? They couldn’t cope with Chelsea earlier in the season and this is a tough match to find their feet again in. But maybe that Wigan result was just an anomaly, because the Magpies have been playing well and they have plenty of goals in them. Most of their wobbles have come on the road though, and maybe that will just hand the advantage over to Chelsea in the race for fourth place. Newcastle are averaging 1.41 goals per game away from home this season, and they are conceding on average 1.8 per game.

Form (most recent result last): Chelsea WWDDW, Newcastle WWWWL

Stat Attack: The Magpies haven’t beaten Chelsea in the last five Premier League meetings Chelsea have lost only one of the last eleven home matches Newcastle have kept five clean sheets in their last seven league matches. The Magpies have scored first in 60% of their matches

Recommended Bet: Have been very impressed by Newcastle, but hard to go against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge at the moment. Whether it has been through stubborn defence, or straight out attack, or even just through luck, Chelsea are finding ways to get things done at the moment. They are doing them well too, even with a make-shift back line.

Odds: Euro 2012

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Bolton Wanderers v Tottenham Hotspur

Bolton Preview: Bolton have been solid enough at home, losing just one of their last four. But again, the trouble for them is trying to keep a clean sheet. The Trotters haven’t won in their last two home matches though, suffering a heavy defeat against Fulham and then luckily escaping with a 1-1 draw against Swansea. At the Reebok this season, Bolton have managed just a W4 D3 L10 record for the season while managing just over a goal per game on average. However, they have conceded almost two goals per game at home, and they have conceded in each of their last five home matches. That means you would generally expect them to concede against Spurs, so it will be down to whether or not they can out-gun Tottenham. Kevin Davies came up big for his side on Saturday, netting twice in the draw at the Stadium of light, but they have only managed to pen the scoring in 25% of their matches this season. A point at this stage of the season against a top six club could be a big reward.

Tottenham Preview: While that home win was welcome, and they scored a 3-0 home win over Bolton earlier in the season,Tottenham’s away form is still miserable. Harry Redknapp has not enjoyed an away win in the Premier League in the last eight attempts now. In that run, there have been four draws and four defeats, so they are still on shaky ground away from home. They aren’t playing with a high degree of confidence and they look a bit jaded. But the return of Emmanuel Adebayor to the starting line up seemed to help them on the weekend, and there were a few more positive signs from them. They played some neat passing football, and Luka Modric actually showed up and put in a solid performance, after being criticised for having gone missing when the going gets tough. Spurs could have had four or five goals in the match, but the fact that they didn’t punish Blackburn harder, suggests that there is still more to come. Spurs have W6 D5 L6 away record this season, and without that win in eight now. Tottenham have scored 22 and conceded 22 goals on their travels this season. Worryingly though, they haven’t scored a goal in four of their last four away matches.

Form (most recent result last): Bolton LLDWD, Spurs WDLLW

Stat Attack:
Spurs have scored in every home game this season in the Premier League
Tottenham have scored first in 60% of their games this season
Spurs have four men in double figures for goals scored
Bolton are unbeaten in their last three league games
The Trotters have just two clean sheets at home

Recommended Bet: Bolton are gutsy and hanging in there, but are easily taken apart at the back. While they will work hard, and be relatively happy with a draw, the craft that Spurs have should win out on the day. Tottenham are long overdue an away win in the league, but this should be a winnable game on the back of their Blackburn win.

Odds: Euro 2012

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Arsenal V Norwich 5th May 19:45

Arsenal Preview: At home this season, Arsenal have ran up a W12 D3 L3 record, and they are scoring at a rate of two goals per game on average. However, they are now without a win in their last two after suffering a shock home defeat against Wigan and then were held to a lifeless goalless draw against Chelsea. So after a five match winning streak at The Emirates in the league, Arsenal need to pick up the slack a little bit. What has happened is that Robin van Persie has stopped being as prolific and therefore the Gunners are suffering a bit. Even Wenger has admitted that, saying that they have been over-reliant on him, but also admitted the Gunners needed RVP to push them over the line. The Gunners are usually quite powerful going forward, but they have only managed two goals in their last three matches, which is unlike them. They have only managed one goal in their last two home matches. The Gunners shot down the Canaries at Carrow Road earlier in the season, thanks to a brace from Robin van Persie It all seems to be about him at the moment, and therefore, he is worth looking at in the goalscorer markets. He is usually the one to stand up and be counted.

Norwich Preview: Norwich have a W5 D4 L9 away record for the season, and they haven’t picked up a draw in their last nine on the road. It should be mentioned that on their last trip to London, they did beat Spurs at White Hart Lane and deservedly so. But that remains Norwich’s only win in the last five away from Carrow Road, so they aren’t carrying good form at all. With three straight losses in the Premier League, and having managed just one goal in that run of three games, the Canaries look short. Not short on commitment or style, just lacking the hardiness of the Premier League, that’s all. Not expecting them to go and win at the Emirates, as the Norwich defence, which has shipped almost two goals per game on the road. Norwich just haven’t caused enough of a threat on the road, and with what is at stake for Arsenal in this match, it is likely they’ll be on the wrong end of a Robin van Persie show.

Odds: Euro 2012

Form (most recent result last): Arsenal WWLDD, Norwich DWLLL

Stat Attack:
The Canaries have not kept a clean sheet on the road this season
Norwich have only scored one and conceded eleven in the last three matches
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their home games this season
Robin van Persie only has two goals in the last eight

Recommended Bet: No reason why the Gunners can’t sort out three points for themselves in this match. They have the quality and power to wrap this up, even if they aren’t in the greatest form. Norwich haven’t kept a clean sheet all season on the road, and wouldn’t expect them to start here

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Newcastle V Man City 6th May

Newcastle Preview:Newcastle have won seven of their last eight in the Premier League, with only that blip against Wigan upsetting their great run. Their last two matches have been away from home, so they will be happy to get back to St James’ Park where they have won the last four straight. Just as impressive as their incredible strike force has been, their defence has also stepped up to the mark in a big way. Six of their last eight matches have produced a clean sheet, which is a fantastic run, and it is why they will give Manchester City a tough time on Sunday. The Magpies haven’t conceded a goal in their last four home matches now and that is a great record to hold on to. At home this season, Newcastle have produced a W11 D5 L2 record for the season, and they are unbeaten in their last nine there. They have scored in each of their ten home games, and Papiss Cisse has now netted eleven in the last eight leaguematches. So he is the one to watch in the goalscorer markets. Newcastle went down heavily 3-1 at the Etihad Stadium earlier in the season, but they are a much improved side since then and in particularly good form. They have the forward power and creativity to match City.

Manchester City Preview: Manchester City have won their last two away matches, beating Norwich 6-1 and then Wolves 2-0. Granted, the trip to Newcastle is going to be a lot tougher than either of those two matches, but they have recovered some away form at least. If City do end up losing out in the title race, then it will be down to their away form. City hold a W9 D4 L5 away record for the season, and while they are scoring at a healthy rate of an average of 2.00 goals per game, and conceding under a goal per game on their travels, they haven’t been totally convincing on the road. They have won just two of their last five, which isn’t a great record, and up until recently they have struggled to put the ball in the back of the netaway from home. However, the return of Carlos Tevez could yet prove to be the big factor in their season. He has given them an extra dimension up front with Sergio Aguero, and Mancini also reneged on his statement that Mario Balotelli wouldn’t play again this season after getting sent off against Arsenal. All the stops really have to come out now for City, because if they can win this one, then the title should be theirs.

Odds: Euro 2012

Form (most recent result last): Newcastle WWWLW, Man City LWWWW

Stat Attack:
Manchester City have won their last two games against Newcastle by a 3-1 scoreline
City have won seven of eight EPL matches against the Magpies
City have the joint highest tally of away goals this season
Newcastle have the highest proportion of first half goals this season
Papiss Cisse has thirteen goals in 12 EPL appearances

Recommended Bet: Well, this is really one of the toughest matches of the season to call. Newcastle are tanking along at home, while City have picked up their pace. City have a great record against Newcastle and that may just be the thing to get them through this.

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Man United v Swansea 6th May 2012

Manchester United Preview: The Red Devils had a comfortable eight point lead at one point, but that has slowly been whittled away.Now they have to produce at Old Trafford, but because of that immediate need, most punters aren’t looking beyond a strong home win for the Red Devils. United did slip up badly in their last home match, when they threw away a 4-2 lead over Everton with twenty minutes to go. They came away with just a point on that occasion, but that was their first home match in eight in which they failed to pick up all three points. United’s title challenge has wobbled, but it hasn’t fallen over just yet. They are in good enough form at home to secure three points here without too much trouble. A W14 D2 L2 record at Old Trafford the season, having scored in every one of those eighteen home games, suggests that this will be a three pointer for them. Manchester United have yet to concede a goal in the first fifteen minutes of any match, and they have opened the scoring in 78% of their games this season. United battled to a 1-0 win at the Liberty Stadium earlier in the season, but Sunday’s scoreline should be better than that.Wayne Rooney has scored in each of the last six home matches, so worth looking at in your goalscorer markets.

Swansea Preview: They blew a three nil lead against Wolves at the Liberty Stadium last weekend, which should never have happened. They also dominated their previous game against Bolton, but just couldn’t find a winning goal. It adds up to Swansea not having won on the road in their last three matches. In their last six away from the Liberty Stadium, Swansea have lost three, drawn one and won two. In total this season, Swansea have W4 D4 L10 on the road, and that record can all be pointed back to a lack of goal. The Swans average less than a goal per game on the road this season, while they are conceding on average 1.72. So not a great standing to be in to head to Old Trafford, but the pressure is all off the shoulders of Swansea. They have their Premier League status secured and build on the achievements of this season. Back on march 17th, Swansea beat Manchester City, so will they be able to put a spanner in the works of United this time around? If they can get to half time at 0-0, then they may be just able to take advantage of an edgy United and catch them on the break.

Odds: Euro 2012

Form (most recent result last): Man Utd WLWDL, Swansea LLWDD

Stat Attack:
Swansea have never won at Old Trafford
United have buried four goals in each of their last two home matches
21% of Swansea’s goals this season have come in the first fifteen minutes
Swansea have won just one of the last seven in the EPL
If United concede, it will be the first time in over twenty years they have conceded 20 goals at home in a season

Recommended Bet: Should be United all the way, and Rooney, who is in incredible form at home, should be the one to initiate it all. He is well worth looking at in the First Goalscorer market. However, this is the kind of match where you would expect United to send a big message to City that they aren’t done yet.

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Blackburn v Wigan 7th May 2012

Blackburn Preview: This a massive match for Rovers, who have a W6 D1 L11 home record for the season, which is a 33% success rate. That win against Norwich has been their only home win in the last three, but most of their light at the end of the tunnel in terms of survival has come at Ewood Park since February. They have only lost two of the last six on home turf, and they need to muster up one more massive home game if they are going to have any hope of playing Premier League football next season. Yakubu netted a brace when Rovers earned a point in a 3-3 draw at Wigan earlier in the season, and Steve Kean needs big performances from Yakubu and Hoilett in particular. They need to be sharp in front of goal. In their last match at White Hart Lane, Blackburn were criticised heavily for not even having a go of things in their relegation battle, because they did manage a single shot on goal in the ninety minutes. There’s no excuse for that at this stage of the season, and the other thing working in favour it looks like is going to be home advantage. But they look like a side desperately short on confidence and quality.

Wigan Preview: Wigan have lost just two of their last six on the road, picking up three wins in that run as well. So they are not doing badly at all. They are averaging just over a goal per game on the road this season, while defensively they have conceded at a rate of 1.94 per away game. Wigan have kept three clean sheets in their last six league games, but they have all been at home. On their travels, Wigan have only managed one clean sheet all season, so the likelihood is that they will concede, and so then it will be up to their forwards to redress the balance. Fortunately Blackburn’s defence is pretty bad, and so if Wigan stick to their creative passing game, then they should be alright. Wigan have improved drastically to a W5 D3 L10 record away from home this season, but they have conceded in each of their last seven road trips. The thing about this match for Wigan, is that they can’t afford to get dragged into a scrappy mess of a game, as that will suit Blackburn. Wigan have set themselves up for survival, they just need to finish the job.

Odds: Euro 2012

Form (most recent result last): Blackburn LLLWL, Wigan LWWLW

Stat Attack:
Wigan have never won at Ewood Park, and have lost on their last five visits there
The last two games between these two have produced 13 goals
There have been three penalties in the last two meetings between the clubs
The two have produced an average of 3.77 goals per game from 13 EPL meetings

Recommended Bet: Well, Wigan are the better side of the two, but they have a horrid record at Ewood Park. Hopefully it is another thriller like the meeting at the DW Stadium earlier in the year, when Yabuku netted a penalty nine minutes into stoppage time to earn Rovers a 3-3 draw. Rovers were awful in their last match against Spurs, they had no fight whatsoever.

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West Ham v Cardiff 7th May 2012

West Ham Preview: West Ham looked more like themselves after the pressure of the automatic promotion race was off,but while the job seems half done against Cardiff, West Ham did lose at home to the Bluebirds of the first day of the season. The simple upshot of this is that West Ham have the better control, the better fire-power and they can’t afford to just sit back and expect an easy ride. There is still a long ninety minutes worth of work to put in, but they will be firm favourites to drive on home here. An immediate return to the Premier League after getting relegated last season, looks firmly on the cards at the moment. Allardyce’s men looked professional and in control and should be even stronger at home, where they have lost just four matches all season.

Cardiff Preview: A two goal deficit is going to be a tough thing to overhaul, but they could gain some advantage on set pieces, where they did trouble West Ham at the back. Cardiff may be able to take some confidence from their string of three wins on the road to finish the season off, and they are unbeaten in their last six away matches. So it may not be all over for the Bluebirds just yet, but boss Malky Mackay has a tough tactical call on his hands, trying to find that balance of attack without being too exposed at the back. Eight times on the road this season Cardiff have picked up 1-1 draws, and Peter Whittingham is their top scorer for the season on the road with a haul of seven. Can they trouble the West Ham defence enough?

Odds: Euro 2012

Recommended Bet: West Ham’s form was solid enough at Upton Park over the course of the season, losing just four times. They draw far more than they would like (eight) but they look stronger than Cardiff in the middle of the park and going forward.

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Liverpool v Chelsea May 9 2012 3:00

Liverpool Preview: The only bright spark was that Andy Carroll came to life and his marauding last twenty minutes at least game them some hope. Other than that, Liverpool were direction-less going forward, with no support for Luis Suarez up front. The Reds have won just one of their last eight games at Anfield and they need three points against Chelsea, just to draw level with 8thplaced Fulham. A loss here for the Reds would mean that they could finish no higher than eighth. This is Dalglish’s last chance to shine in front of the Kop for the season, and for players to play for their places next season. Dalglish put down the FA Cup final loss to the relative inexperience of his side compared to that of the core of the Chelsea side. But that doesn’t excuse back to back defeats at Anfield. It doesn’t excuse three defeats and a draw in their last four at Anfield. They don’t have form, and with just a W5 D9 L4 record for the season, they have clicking along at just a 28% success rate. It has been a equally disappointing story in front of goal, where they have managed just 1.1 goals per game at Anfield. Their defence hasn’t been terrible, but the forwards aren’t providing an outlet. Liverpool’s most frequent result at Anfield this season has been six 1-1 draws, and three 0-0 draws. Stats which paints a picture.

Chelsea Preview: The Blues are still in a fight to finish fourth in the Premier League, even though they start five points back of fourth placed Tottenham. This is Chelsea’s game in hand over Spurs and fifth placed Newcastle, and while Chelsea were off enjoying their Wembley celebrations, they were helped out the following day with Spurs being held to a draw, and Newcastle losing. So they were handed a lifeline in the race for a Champions League place and they have to capitalise on it. It it more than likely Di Matteo will make some big changes to the side, with notably Fernando Torres coming back in, as the boss tries to rest his core ahead of the Champions League final against Bayern Munich. But the Blues haven’t been great on the road, as they have only picked up seven points from the last twenty four available away from Stamford Bridge. However, they are unbeaten in their last three, the last two being draws. Chelsea’s away record for the season stands at W6 D7 L5 and have only managed a disappointing 23 goals on the road.

Odds: Euro 2012

Most recent result last: Liverpool DWLWL, Chelsea WDDWL

Stat Attack:
Chelsea haven’t scored in five of their last eight EPL Matches against Liverpool
Kenny Dalglish lost his first game in 14 as manager against Chelsea on the weekend
Chelsea have only won one of their last eight away matches
Liverpool have only won at Anfield once in 2012

Recommended Bet: Well, Chelsea have everything to play for, while Liverpool should just be running on pride and revenge. That makes this a difficult match for Chelsea, who haven’t been solid on the road. Nine of Chelsea’s last ten goals conceded have been in the final fifteen minutes of matches. With Chelsea having to change personnel, Liverpool should be able to edge this one, especially if they get Carroll in from the start and taking on a more positive attitude.