In this thread I will post my leans and opinions about the games and some free picks. My actual bets are available in my blog. I only bet 1 or 2 games each day and I do really well. You can see all my results and achievements in my blog.
My leans and opinions for today are below. The actual bets I make are available in the blog.
MLB
Atlanta -1.5 (2.05) vs Washington
Pitchers: Martis & Lowe
Martis is a below average pitcher who wouldn't make the starting rotation in most teams. Lowe on the other hand is a solid veteran who has been dominant at home through out his career. Atlanta's bats and Lowe's pitching should give a comfortable win for Atlanta.
NBA
Cleveland -6.5 vs philadelphia
Cleveland already has home court secured throughout eastern conference and that should make their way to the finals easier, especially considering Garnett's health issues. Ofcourse he will play in the playoffs but he wont be 100%. The homecourt will help Cleveland advance if those 2 teams meet. Therefore, most important thing for them during regular season is to secure the homecourt for the finals by securing the best record in the league. Most people are already predicting a cleveland/lakers finals. In order for cleveland to beat lakers, home court is crucial. Philadelphia is just trying to get healthy and they are playing back to back. Without Young and Brand, they will be no match for Cleveland who are playing to win this game because they don't want to risk lakers catching them for the league lead.
Memphis +2 vs phoenix
Memphis game is purely based on the situation. Phoneix fought their lives in the recent games hoping to keep the playoff hopes alive but they got eliminated. After all the fight they put up in the last 2 weeks, they will rest most of their aging stars. Memphis should take care of them at home.
My leans and opinions for Saturday. The actual bets I make are available in the blog.
SOCCER
German: M'gladbach +0.5 (2.00) against Wolfsburg
This game is a big trap. Recent events and odds will make everybody bet on wolfsburg and bookies are licking their lips already. This game is either no bet or M'gladbach +0.5. Wolfsburg is clearly the better side and they have been playing really well lately but this should be a big letdown game. Wolfs have taken the share of the lead after trashing Munich 5-0 last week, now they are back on the road where their overall road season performance is nothing to be impressed about with the exception of some recent games. I am not betting this game but there is solid value on M'gladbach +0.5 at 1.91 to 2.20 odds that are widely available in many books. This is a typical game where lot of gamblers would go 10/10 on wolfs win, lose their arse off, then come here to complain that the game was fixed.
Italian: Lazio-AS Roma DRAW 3.25
Regardless of the line up this will be a tight hard fought derby and good value on draw. Picking a side is really hard here and there is absolutely no value on that. This is a typical match up where it ends in a a draw atleast 2 out of 5 times.
Lecce is also looking nice, they need to pull away from relegation zone and might go for 3 points here against a sampordia team that has been awful on the road.
American sports opinions yesterday went exactly as hoped. Both basketball plays right on the spot. Even the basebally was right on the spot as Martis pitched poorly as Lowe and Atlanta took a nice 4-1 lead but we got unfortunate when the rain started pouring. Rain caused a 2 hour delay and when the game resumed, both pitchers were pulled. If it did'nt rain, lowe would have pitched through 7th or 8th inning but instead he didn't return after 4th. The releivers came and gave up quick runs to washington. Atlanta won the game but only by 1 run and it wasn't enough for the -1.5 opinion.
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Some more leans/opinions for Saturday April, 11th
NBA: Phoenix/Minnesota Under 225.5
Books made a mistake in this number. Yesterday, I gave my opinion on Memphis/phoenix game and it went exactly as I hoped as phoenix limited the playing time of most of their stars. Reasoning behind today's play is same. Phoenix played hard in the last week, running crazy, hoping to make the playoffs but they only got themselves eliminated. They will rest players again and even if they play, they wont play the uptempo running game that they usually play. 225.5 is way too high imho.
NHL: Florida win (1.89) against Washington (overtime inclusive)[/b]
This game is meaningless for washington because no matter what happens, they will finish 2nd place in the eastern conference. Expect them to rest their superstars and limit the playing time of most players. Florida, on the other hand fought hard to make the playoffs and failed but they would want to finish the season on a positive note in front of their fans.
These are just opinions/leans/free picks. I bet only 1 or 2 games each day and my actual bets are available at my blog. So far there have been over 75 bets for the year 2009 and the win rate is 60% with overall yield over 20%.
Both NHL and NBA opinion went spot an as expected. The blog pick also won comfortably.
For Sunday April 12, 2009
NBA: Toronto +1 against Philadelphia
Both toronto and philadelphia have dropped 4 in a row. Philly lost their touch after the injury to Young and since then they are slipping. Phillies could try to win and improve their standings to face a better opponoent in the first round but it is unlikely as they are too shorthanded without Brand and Young. Young played a major role in phillies' win over Toronto in their last match up by scoring 29 points. Toronto's season has been a big disappointment with them missing the playoffs. This will be Toronto's last home game, so, they would want to give something to their fans by winning. I cannot see the shorthanded phillies keeping up with Toronto. This is just an opinion/lean. My actual bets are available at my blog. So far there have been over 75 bets for the year 2009 and the win rate is 60% with overall yield over 20%.
MLB: Florida/NY Mets [Johnson & Santana] UNDER 7.5 (2.06)
This game seems like battle of pithchers. Bost starters have excellent track record against their opponents. Santana is 5-0 in 5 starts against florida with an era of 1.83 in 34.1 innings. Johnson is 4-0 in 5 starts against new york with an era of 1.80 in 30.2 innings. Usually when a two teams play an early game with solid starters, after playing a night game the previous night, the batters are little off. This game could finish very well under 4 runs. So, Under 7.5 offered at those odds is good value. This is just an opinion/lean. My actual bets are available at my blog. So far there have been over 75 bets for the year 2009 and the win rate is 60% with overall yield over 20%.
you are welcome to post the picks, but dont post links. you are allowed to have your link in your signature, and that should be enough. no referring to the signature in your posts either. those are forum rules.
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Very good picks sir, keep 'em coming! I have been tailing your opinions since Saturday, perfect 4 for 4. Please post them regularly.
I have some questions if you don't mind:
What is the difference between the opinion picks that you post here for free and your paid picks? How do you decide? Also, once NBA and NHL ends, there wouldn't be much to bet. How good are you in MLB? Are you going to do soccer in the summer? Sorry for all the questions. I am thinking of signing up for your 1 year 100% moneyback offer, so answers to all the questions would be much appreciated. Finally, do you take moneybookers? If you take moneybookers, I can just withdraw some of the money from my sportsbooks that you helped me win in from the last 2 days into my moneybookers then use it for your subscription. I cannot use paypal because they have my account limited.
Very good picks sir, keep 'em coming! I have been tailing your opinions since Saturday, perfect 4 for 4. Please post them regularly.
I have some questions if you don't mind:
What is the difference between the opinion picks that you post here for free and your paid picks? How do you decide? Also, once NBA and NHL ends, there wouldn't be much to bet. How good are you in MLB? Are you going to do soccer in the summer? Sorry for all the questions. I am thinking of signing up for your 1 year 100% moneyback offer, so answers to all the questions would be much appreciated. Finally, do you take moneybookers? If you take moneybookers, I can just withdraw some of the money from my sportsbooks that you helped me win in from the last 2 days into my moneybookers then use it for your subscription. I cannot use paypal because they have my account limited.
Thank you and keep up the good work.
I bet only 1 or 2 games each day. Overall I bet anywhere from 20 to 30 games per month. My process is studying couple of games, then choosing the best game(s) to bet. These games that i bet are the ones that I sent to my clients. You can see all the results of my games that I bet in my blog.
The picks that I post here are some of the games that I leaned towards betting but dropped them because of finding much better bets. So, I post these unselected bets here free. I won't post them everyday but I will post them whenever I have a chance to get on the forum or have lot of time in my hand.
I do not bet soccer. Once in a blue moon I might place a soccer bet if there is some good match up (usually in world cup, euro cup, or champions league) MLB and NFL are my most profitable sports followed by College Football and NBA.
Sorry, at the moment I accept only paypal. I will try to get a moneybookers account in the near future since a lot of people already asked me this by email.
FINALLY, IF YOU ARE THINKING ABOUT SIGNING UP FOR THE FULL YEAR 100% MONEY BACK OPTION, DON'T WAIT TOO LONG BECAUSE I AM GOING TO TAKE AWAY THAT OPTION. I CHARGE $100 FOR ONE MONTH AND $450 FOR FULL YEAR. SINCE MY PICKS ARE IN POSITIVE DURING ANY GIVEN 30 DAYS, IT IS MORE REVENUE FOR ME IF I DROP THE 1 YEAR SUBSCRIPTION OFFER.
Below games are just an opinion. My actual bets are available at my blog So far there have been over 75 bets for the year 2009 and the win rate is 60% with overall yield over 20%.
Chicago White Sox -1.5 (2.33) against Detroit [Danks & Porcello]
Chicago's offense finally woke up in Detroit's hitter friendly park yesterday. Both teams have similar power and offence, however Danks is an MLB experienced pitcher who put together a solid season in 2008. Porcello on the other hand just turned 20 couple of months ago and Detroit rushed him to majors. If you ask me, he needs atleast 2 more years of seasoning in the minor league. Porcello is a pitcher with lot of talent, who will be a star in the future but now he is way too inexperienced and young to pitch in games of this calibre. Detroit also has a shaky bullepen, which is bad news if porcello gets pulled early.
Texas -1.5 (+129) against Baltimore
Over 11 (1.88)
This game will probably be the highest scoring game tonight. Texas is a super hitter friendly park and we got two bad pitchers facing each other tonight. I would rate McCarthy better than Simon. Texas should have upper hand as their offense is really good, especially at home where they don't disappoint (averaging 9.5 runs per game in 4 home games). Expect a big scoring fest in this match up as we have bad pitchers, below average bullepens and lot of good bats coming to play.
Above games are just an opinion. My actual bets are available at my blog So far there have been over 75 bets for the year 2009 and the win rate is 60% with overall yield over 20%.
My leans and opinions for Saturday are below. The actual bets I make are available in the blog.
Cleveland +2.5 against Philadelphia
All-Stars LeBron James and Mo Williams and veterans Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Joe Smith will not play tonight to rest for the playoffs. Forward Ben Wallace who has been injured lately will also not come back atleast until the start of playoffs. One might wonder why the heck I am picking Cleveland then. Well philadelphia is miserable, they have lost all the games since the injury to Young. Cleveland opened as -1.5 favourte but the public is going insane on philadelphia with the top players resting for Cleveland. I think the rest of Cleveland's team that will play today will match up well against Brand&Young-less philadelphia. Philadelphia has lot to plaay for this in this game because a win today and a loss by chicago can improve their standings, however, they had lot to play all of last week and they never stepped up, even at home. Today they are playing at the team that is trying to tie NBA's best home record and I cannot see philadelphia winning this. Delonte West, Varejao and Gibson will step up tonight for Cleveland and should be able to put on a nice show for the home crowd. If the game stays real close in the fourth quarter, don't be surprised if the coach decides to use James/Williams/Ilgauskas/Smith for few minutes to get the win and tie the NBA record.
Houston/Dallas Under 190
This is a tricky game. There is more at stake for Houston than Dallas because a win would secure them the home court advantage in the first round of playoffs. Dallas however will only finish 6th or 7th and it is impossible for them to tell which team they will face since there are 4 teams that could finish 2nd or 3rd, depending on the result of tonight's games. I wouldn't expect Dallas to over use their starters tonight, and I would expect the coach to go for a slower, careful pace. Houston will also try to slow down the game much as possible with worries of injury to Ming's knee. Given the situation, 190 is too high imho.
New Orleans +9 against San Antonio
This is same situation as dallas/houston game where New Orleans will finish either 6th or 7th and san Antonio is playing for home advantage. New Orleans played a terrible game and lost big in their last game against Houston--they would want to finish the season on a positive note. Also, since San Antonio is a possible opponent for New Orleans in the first round of playoffs they will this acts as a preview game. This will be another slow/low scoring game which should stay with in 9 points.
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