Daily Forex Analysis and Forecasts

[GFSignals]

At the beginning of the Forex trading day on Thursday all the rivals of USD fell down under the pressure of the American currency and news coming from the United States. For example EUR/USD reached 1.4550 even before the European session, and GBP/USD rolled down to 1.5925. USD/CHF continued growing up and reached 1.0452 and USD/JPY was to break through the point of 90.00.

But then European currencies did a bit of correction and tried to set back at the levels of the trading day beginning. That was the result of good data on the situation in Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing grew up to 49.3 (it was expected to remain at 49). So, EUR/USD went back to the level of 1.4600 and USD/CHF ***8211; to 1.0419. The Britsh pound was also showing upward moving against both USD and EUR, influenced by the positive expectations of growing to 0.9%.

But the news from the USA turned the situation round. The United States don***8217;t seem to go out of the crisis. The growing of Initial Jobless Claims and the reduction of ISM Manufacturing made USD push the European and British currencies down ***8211; 1.4520 EUR/USD and 1.5925 GBP/USD.

The latest news from the USA are showing, that the United States are far from recovering form the crisis. The main news to be taken into considertion on Friday, October 2, 2009 is, of course, Change in Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate in the USA. And that data is expected to show quite negative dynamics, which can throw EUR/USD even to 1.4400 and GBP/USD to 1.5800. At the same time USD/JPY can fall down to 89.00.

[GFSignals]

The main event expected by almost all economists on Monday, October 5, 2009 was the meeting of Finance Ministers of Big 7 in Istanbul. The participants of the meeting told that the perspectives of improving of the economical situation were very fragile and the level of unemployment was quite high. And few words had been said about the American currency and importance of its recovery and stability, because the big fall of USD can easily crush the world economy down.

In spite of that USD continued falling down against its all main rivals, except the British pound. At first GBP/USD rose to the level of 1.6000, but then returned back to 1.5933. EUR pushed USD down to 1.4647. At the same time USD/JPY fell to the minimum point of 89.28, but then managed to move back to about 89.50. USD/CHF finished the trading day at 1.0319.

On Tuesday the most important news is to come from the British Isles: the data on Industrial Production and Manufacture production, which can influence the market very strong. At the same time a piece of news will be also heard from the United States: API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories, API U.S. Gasoline Inventories and API U.S. Distillate Inventory.

Due to that EUR/USD might rise up to 1.4730 but then to roll back to about 1.46 under the pressure of news from the USA. At the same time GBP can suppress USD and move back to yesterday’s maximum of about 1.6000 with the help of news, which Forex signals providers expect to be positive for the British currency. The release of Swiss CPI can be a sign to CHF to push USD down, which will bring USD/CHF to about 1.0250 and even lower. USD/JPY is likely to remain between 89.00 and 90.00.

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America's most tone deaf CEO
He works for AIG. You know? The bailed out insurer owned mostly by taxpayers. Its new CEO, Robert Benmosche, is getting attention for his brash style.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Since being named AIG's chief executive in August, Robert Benmosche's brashness has unnerved board members and raised the ire of Congress.

According to numerous news reports, Benmosche has done everything from requesting corporate jets for personal use to saying he was prepared to tell Congress to "stick it where the sun don't shine."

"We call that chutzpah," said Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif. "He's determined that the federal government will continue to shovel money at him, his counterparties and shareholders. But why would we allow that?"

AIG has $182 billion in government bailout funds available to it, of which it has already borrowed $120.7 billion.

Benmosche, formerly the CEO of insurer MetLife (MET, Fortune 500), came to AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) on a wave of enthusiasm, and the stock has soared some 200% since his appointment. Both Washington and investors were happy that the board chose someone with a proven track record.

"Benmosche was successful in Met's transfer from a private to a public company and changing the corporate culture, which was a big part of Met's success," said Stewart Johnson, portfolio manager at Philo Smith & Co., an investment banking firm that specializes in insurance companies. "He's a leader, and there are a lot of people that respect him from a business perspective."

Pulling no punches. The new CEO took over AIG on Aug. 7. His first move? Take a two-week vacation to his summer house in Croatia where he told reporters who tracked him down that he wanted to maximize value for shareholders and wouldn't be tempted to sell off assets so quickly.

The company had previously pledged to repay its TARP loan in three to five years enabled in large part by selling assets.

"If [Benmosche] holds onto [the assets] and their value goes down, the taxpayer loses, and if they go up, he and AIG's shareholders win," said Sherman. "It's heads he wins, tails we lose."

Benmosche also negotiated an annual salary of $3 million, with a bonus and options that could bring that total up to $10.5 million. According to news reports, Benmosche threatened to quit if his pay package wasn't approved. Obama's executive pay czar Kenneth Feinberg has already given a preliminary green light, with a formal approval expected soon.

How not to make friends. Early last month, Benmosche issued a public apology after saying in a staff meeting that New York state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo "doesn't deserve to be in government."

Cuomo is investigating AIG's controversial bonus payments.

At the meeting, according to Bloomberg News, Benmosche followed up his criticism of Cuomo, calling Congress a bunch of "crazies." He also said that if he had been grilled by lawmakers like his predecessor, Ed Liddy, he would have reacted differently. "I would have told them what to do with this job, and I would have said it on TV: You can stick it where the sun don't shine," he said.

In the aftermath, unidentified board members spoke to Wall Street Journal reporters early last month, saying that Benmosche had overstepped his bounds and AIG Chairman Harvey Golub would have to rein him in.

Then in late September, AIG's board declined Benmosche's request to use corporate jets for his personal travel, according to AIG spokesman Mark Herr. Treasury rules for bailed out institutions prohibit companies from giving executives such perks without the government's prior approval.

Herr said he knew of no animosity between Benmosche and the board on any issue, including the jet matter. Requests to speak with Benmosche and members of AIG's board were declined. Calls to board members' offices were directed to AIG.

Furthermore, three trustees appointed by the government to represent taxpayers' 79.9% stake in AIG declined to comment. A spokesmen for the trustees said they do not comment on day-to-day operations of AIG.
AIG is no MetLife. "He should be doing more work figuring out what strategies he's going to implement to make the company successful, and less time telling everyone he's the boss," said Andy Barile, chief executive of insurance consultant Andrew Barile Consulting Corp. "We know you're the boss. That's the problem everyone has with him: he's arrogant."

Insurance insiders say Benmosche has a reputation of being brassy, which served him well in previous positions, but it is coming to bite him.

"He hasn't yet realized that he can't be the CEO that he was at Met," said Barile. "Now he's in a situation where his company is majority-owned by the government, and he needs to relate to them."

"AIG has the cheapest source of capital of any publicly held company in the country: the government," added Barile. "He should be schmoozing them. Instead, if he keeps mouthing off like this, he may lose his support, and the government may stop bailing him out."

That won't likely happen, since Treasury and the Federal Reserve have made the loans to AIG -- not Congress. But he's certainly caught lawmakers' attention.

"He called us idiots, he called us corrupt," said Sherman, the California lawmaker. "I do have to thank this guy for his insults. He caused us to wake up from being completely asleep."

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Chrysler spends too much time making great concept cars, even getting bthem into production and then leave them on the vine to wither. Dodge autos should NOT look like a Chrysler car with a different grill and tail light. The dash boards of these cars all kook alike. Chrysler has gone generic as far as their details. Let's get back to cars of distiction and THEN KEEP THEM IN THE DEVELOMENT LINE. 10-12 years for changes is way too long-say for the minivan. Mercedes bleed Chrysler and offered little. Lets hope the Italians have a broader mind. We need every AMERICAN CAR COMPANY to be a world power.

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Obama: How to get business going
'I have always believed that our rule as lawmakers is not to stifle the market.'(Fortune Magazine) -- Barack Obama has been more critical of corporate America than any recent President. After his speech on the economy on April 14, Washington editor Nina Easton submitted written questions about his views on business. The answers he sent Fortune sounded notably conciliatory. Excerpts:

How can corporate America redeem itself? You reportedly told bankers in a private meeting recently that your administration "is the only thing between you and the pitchforks." Could you broaden that message for the Fortune 500?

The causes of this economic and financial crisis are complex, and extend from Washington to Wall Street to Main Street. Americans are angry at the extent of the damage that has been done to our economy, and justifiably so. Understanding that frustration is important in restoring confidence and helping our economy and our businesses recover.

The truth is that there is plenty of blame to go around. Many Americans took out loans that they could not afford. Others were enticed into loans they did not understand by lenders trying to make a quick profit. Investment banks bought and packaged these questionable mortgages into securities, arguing that by pooling the mortgages, the risks had been reduced. Credit agencies stamped these securities with their safest rating when they should have been labeled "Buyer Beware." And as the bubble grew, there was almost no accountability or oversight from anyone in Washington.

Addressing this crisis will require change across the spectrum, not just from corporate America but from Washington and Main Street as well. We need to update our regulatory structure with sound rules of the road that reward drive and innovation instead of shortcuts and abuse. We also need to invest in the drivers of productivity that will make our businesses more competitive in areas like health care, energy, and education.

You said you'd like to see "our best and brightest commit themselves to making things" rather than responding to a culture that celebrates "those who can manipulate numbers." In what ways do you want to foster companies that make things?

One of the goals of my economic policy is to help lay the foundation for durable economic growth, which drives innovation in our businesses and helps nurture the next generation of homegrown scientists, engineers, and innovators. But as we move forward in this effort, we cannot ignore the fact that our education system is not adequately preparing our workers for a 21st-century economy. Our businesses cannot compete and win in the global economy without a more effectively trained workforce - especially in areas like math and science. That is why so many corporate leaders are advocating for more effective investments in education - from early-childhood education to cultivating more homegrown engineering talent. And that is why I have set a goal that will greatly enhance our ability to compete for the jobs of the 21st century: By 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world.

Much of the business community is alarmed over tax increases in your budget. A coalition of business groups argues that this will impede an economic recovery. Do you believe there is validity to this concern, and do you continue to entertain the possibility of lowering the U.S. corporate tax rate?

I have long advocated a fairer, simpler tax code. That's why my administration has taken far-reaching action to cut taxes in ways that will spur an economic recovery. We have enacted a tax cut for 95% of working families. We passed a recovery act with $75 billion in tax cuts to help businesses create jobs over the next two years. And we are helping small businesses keep their doors open so they can weather this economic storm. Instead of the normal two years, small businesses are now allowed to offset their losses during this downturn against the income they've earned over the last five years. Going forward, I'm committed to reforming our tax code to remove the distortions and complexities that get in the way of businesses investing in expanding operations and creating jobs here in the U.S.

The economic crisis has compelled the administration to assert itself over corporate America in ways that Americans aren't used to. How permanent will this be?

I did not invite the crises that I inherited, and I have always believed that our role as lawmakers is not to stifle the market, but to strengthen its ability to unleash creativity and innovation. But I also have a responsibility to take aggressive action to avoid an even deeper recession and to move this nation toward recovery. History has shown repeatedly that when nations do not take early and aggressive action to get credit flowing again, they have crises that last for many years instead of many months. My hope is that by taking the steps we are taking today, from stabilizing our financial system to helping our auto industry restructure to become more competitive, it will help speed the day that the government can get out of the way and let the private sector do what it does best - innovate, create jobs, and grow the economy.

Many economists seem to think that while the recession is bottoming, the real problem is that we will have a very weak recovery. Do you agree?

While there have been some encouraging signs that our economy may be stabilizing, the risks remain real and significant. We've already taken important steps to address our economy's weakness, including a recovery act that will help create or save 3.5 million jobs and a financial stabilization plan that is expanding credit for homeowners and small businesses. But there is substantial work left to be done - not only to repair the immediate damage, but to ensure that we emerge from this recession with an economic model that leads to durable, sustainable growth.

We've heard much about what corporate America does wrong - greed, excessive debt, shortsightedness. What do you believe Fortune 500 leaders do well?

American businesses and workers will remain the very engine of America's progress - the source of a prosperity that has gone unmatched in human history. Even amid our current downturn, we continue to have the deepest pool of innovators and entrepreneurs of anywhere in the world, many of whom have nurtured strong companies represented on the Fortune 500. These leaders are second to none in creating good jobs, innovative products, and services for consumers and long-term value for their shareholders. And U.S. companies have been on the cutting edge of productivity advances across a range of industries, which is at the heart of sustainable prosperity in the long run.

As many corporate leaders themselves have recognized, in recent years our economy has fallen out of balance. But as we restore this balance, I look forward to working in partnership with America's business leaders to help repair our broken economy and ensure that we emerge from this recession stronger and more prosperous than before.

[GFSignals]

One of the main news important for Forex signals providers yesterday, October 6, 2009 was the increase of interest rate by Reserve Bank of Australia from 3.0% to 3.25%. So, Australia was the first country of Big 20 to increase interest rates from the beginning of the economical crisis. That is the sign of improvement and stabilization of Australian economics – in the first part of the year the GDP increased to 1%. It should be taken into consideration, that Central banks of other countries may follow this example and increase their interest rates as well.

At the same time the fall of USD continued. For example, EUR/USD rose for 100 pips during the first part of the trading day – the day’s maximum was 1.4761, and by the end of the day managed to roll down only to 1.4720. CHF had begun new supression of the American currency and pushed the bucks down – USD/CHF fell to 1.0235, but then recovered to 1.0270. USD/JPY was to reach another 2-day’s minimum – 88.60, having started the trading day at 89.60 and finished it at 88.80.

The only currecny to fall against USD was the British pound. At first it rose up and GBP/USD was again at the level of 1.6000, but then it didn’t managed to continue growing and fell back to 1.5920.

The main news to be taken into consideration on Wednesday, October 7, 2009 is of course the changes of GDP in EU. But the changes in Factory Orders in Germany, the data on USA energetics and Japanese Current Account Total are also to be taken view of.

Talking about the rages of the main currency pairs it can be admitted, that EUR/USD is finally likely to fall down a bit and reach the level of 1.4650, USD/CHF can rise a little bit to the level of 1.0300, USD/JPY is considered to remain between 88.00 and 89.00, but the GBP/USD can roll down to 1.5850 at first, but then to recover to 1.5950.

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Sea World, Busch Gardens sold for $2.7 billion
Anheuser-Busch InBev reaches a deal with Blackstone on Busch Entertainment, which operates 10 theme parks across the nation.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Anheuser-Busch InBev said Wednesday that it will sell its theme park business -- including the Sea World and Busch Gardens parks nationwide -- to buyout firm Blackstone Group for up to $2.7 billion.

Blackstone will pay the world's largest brewer $2.3 billion in cash and up to $400 million on whatever return it makes on Busch Entertainment Corp. (BEC), the second-largest U.S. entertainment park operator.

The widely anticipated deal is seen as a way for the Belgian brewer to pay down debt following its $52 billion takeover of Anheuser-Busch last year.

"The sale of BEC represents another important milestone in our commitment to de-leverage the company and will also allow us to continue to focus on our core brewing business," Carlos Brito, chief executive of Anheuser-Busch InBev, said in a statement.

BEC runs 10 amusement parks throughout the nation, including the SeaWorld parks in Orlando, Fla., San Antonio and San Diego, as well as the Busch Gardens parks in Tampa, Fla., and Williamsburg, Va. The parks receive 25 million visitors every year and employs 25,000 workers, according to the company.

Brito called the parks a "high performing asset," but said BEC is "not a core business for Anheuser-Busch InBev."

The deal expands Blackstone's portfolio of amusement parks. The New York-based firm has stakes in Universal Orlando and Madame Tussauds wax museum.

"Blackstone sees tremendous opportunity for investing in leading businesses within the media and entertainment industries, where we have significant expertise," said Michael Chae, Blackstone's senior managing director, in a statement.

Shares of Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), which brews Budweiser, were up 19 cents to $46.85 on the New York Stock Exchange. Blackstone's (BX) stock rose 1 cent to $14.54.

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GM loses top executive
Mark LaNeve, head of GM's U.S. sales since 2005, leaves company. CEO says replacement may come from outside the automaker.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- General Motors is losing its top U.S. sales executive, a key player in the automaker's reorganization, to a job in another industry, CEO Fritz Henderson announced Wednesday.

Mark LaNeve, 50, who had previously headed GM's Cadillac brand as well as Volvo for rival Ford Motor Co. (F, Fortune 500), has been in charge of the sales in GM's core home market since March 2005. His previous oversight of marketing was taken away from him in July.

GM would not disclose the company he is going to. He will leave GM Oct. 15.

LaNeve has helped lead the company in recent decisions to shed non-core brands and more than 1,000 U.S. dealerships.

But GM's U.S. market share has steadily slid during his tenure from 27.3% in 2004, the year before he took the job, to 19.7% in the first nine months of this year.

"GM has cut about a third of its management ranks since emerging from bankruptcy in July," said Michelle Krebs, senior analyst for industry sales tracker Edmunds.com. "Sales and market share in the U.S. have continued to slide and the sales guy is always the one who bears the blame."

During a press conference to mark the 90th day since GM emerged from bankruptcy, Henderson said that he would consider hiring an outsider to take LaNeve's position.

One frequent criticism of GM is that it has drawn top managers from the ranks of lifetime GM employees. Henderson, who replaced GM veteran Rick Wagoner in March, joined the company immediately after business school.

By comparison, Ford Motor and Chrysler Group are now run by CEOs who came from outside the industry.

"I do think there is a benefit to bringing in outsider," Henderson said. "I think we would benefit from fresh perspective."

But Henderson said GM has some constraints on recruiting top executive talent, including pay limits imposed as a result of its government financial support.

"We are working in Washington to finalize how we pay people," he said. "Prior to bringing people in from the outside, we need to say how we might pay them."

Henderson admitted that he has seen speculation that GM Chief Financial Officer Ray Young might also leave GM, but did not offer any endorsement of his performance, saying only "Ray's our CFO."
In other comments, Henderson also said that GM has not drawn down any more federal dollars since emerging from bankruptcy. It still plans to have an initial public offering of its stock in the second half of 2010, a key to repaying the $50 billion in federal help it has received. But he said that offering would depend on financial performance, its balance sheet and market conditions.

He said the company is on course to meet its financial plans, even though year-to-date staff reductions have been somewhat less than forecast.

"Profitability and cash flow will be the key," he said about the IPO plans.

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OCTOBER 8, 2009

On Wednesday, October 7, 2009 quite a difficult situation was at the market: the American currency was under the pressure of Mass-media, traders and Forex signals providers were waiting for the actions of the Central Banks’ heads of the best economically-developed countries, and the basic rivals of USD, that seemed to be getting stronger, turned out to fall down.

“The Independent’s” report about the possible refusal from USD in pricing oil was to push bucks down. But somehow EUR/USD fell down to the day’s minimum of 1.4648. That was the result of the negative news, coming form Eurozone – annual GDP reduced to 4.8. The level of uneployment is Switzerland grew for 0.1% to 3.9%. That was a stimulus for USD/CHF to rise up to 1.0358 and then set up at 1.0330. At the same time USD/JPY at first even reached 87.90, but then, as it had been predicted, returned to 88.50.GBP/USD was moving in the channel of 1.5920-1.5860 the most time, but at first it fell down to the day’s minimum of 1.5857 and then managed to rise to 1.5971.

Due to the latest events of the Forex market, the main news to be taken into consideration is, of course, the announcement of Interest Rates by British Central Bank and the Central Bank of Europe. It’s expected that the rates will remain at the same level – 0.5 and 1.0% correspondingly. But the changes of Interest Rate by The Central Bank of Australia may force the Banks of other countries to change them as well.

So, it’s necessary to say, that for Thursday, October 8, 2009 the support for EUR/USD will be 1.4550 and resistance – 1.4700. GBP/USD is likely to break the level of 1.6000 and set right there. USD/CHF might rise even to the level of 1.0450 with the support at 1.0300. USD/JPY is expected to be trading between 88.00 and 89.00.

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Retail sales beat expectations
Same store sales at many retailers were stronger than expected in September. But analysts say consumers remain cautious amid rising unemployment.
CHICAGO (Reuters) -- U.S. retailers, including Macy's Inc. and Abercrombie & Fitch, surprised Wall Street with better-than-expected September sales, suggesting shoppers could be loosening their purse strings ahead of the crucial holiday season.

This year's later Labor Day holiday pushed a good chunk of sales from August into September, but analysts had wondered if rising unemployment would weigh more heavily on spending.

Sales of clothing for the back-to-school season fueled many retailers' performances, especially in the early part of the month, as did easier results comparisons from a year ago.

Based on results from 24 retailers, 16 beat Wall Street estimates, and another six are due to report, according to Thomson Reuters data.

"I think the consumer is dipping their toe back into the discretionary waters right now, but just their toe," said Retail Metrics President Ken Perkins.

Many retailers continued to post declines in sales at stores open at least a year, but the drops were more moderate than analysts had forecast.

At Macy's (M, Fortune 500), sales fell 2.3%, half as much as analysts anticipated. Its shares rose 2.7% to $19.10 in premarket trading.

Teen apparel retailer Abercrombie (ANF) saw same-store sales drop 18%, but that was better than the 21% decline predicted by analysts. Its shares rose 4.6% to $34.15.

Limited (LTD, Fortune 500) and Children's Place (PLCE) were among those retailers that posted same-store sales increases.

Besides increasing joblessness, holiday spending could be further constrained by consumer aversion to debt. Total U.S. consumer credit posted a deeper-than-expected drop in August, suggesting consumers are opting to cut their debt rather than spend.
Back-to-school helps

Aeropostale Inc (ARO)., American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) and Gymboree Corp. (GYMB) raised their quarterly profit forecasts. Still, not all of the gains are coming from stronger sales. Gymboree's optimism stemmed mainly from inventory control and taking fewer markdowns.

Gap Inc.'s (GAP, Fortune 500) sales fell more than anticipated, but its shares rose 3% after the company said margins came in significantly above last year.

Limited, whose chains include Victoria's Secret, posted a 1% increase in sales at stores open at least a year. Analysts expected a 2.4% decline.

Children's Place Retail Stores Inc. also reported an unexpected 4% rise in comparable sales. The results were aided by strong growth online, which the company includes in that figure.

"To see a retailer be very weak this September means that there probably has been a fundamental shift in consumption of their product," said Doug Conn, managing director and retail credit specialist at Hexagon Securities.

Analysts had forecast an average decline of 1.1% in September sales at stores open at least a year, according to Thomson Reuters data. That would be the smallest monthly drop since September 2008, when same-store sales fell 0.9%.

Retailers have posted consecutive declines in monthly same-store sales since September 2008, when Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy triggered a global financial crisis. In the previous month, retailers had notched a 0.2% gain.