HYIP Sustainability Index

[luftmensch]

I agree with the objections raised about the practicality and ethical implications of developing such a model -- but, I still find the problem of determining the top of the earnings curve for a ponzi scheme to be an interesting theoretical question. With that in mind, I wonder if you could elaborate on the following sentence:

Originally Posted by golddust

IMO, the sustainability of a program has to be calculated with the variables the scammers uses to determine when or what is their critical mass.

What sort of variables did you have in mind?

Just curious,
luftmensch

[golddust]

Payout percentage, no of subscribers, (selecting what plan), revenues, revenue goal, payout plan time schedule, number of different plans, startup costs, advertising and other costs of doing 'business', cash reserve. I'm sure there are others that would come to mind if I were thinking as a scammer.

[snitsky0111]

too many variables

[golddust]

too many variables

... that IS the point.

Or, are you suggesting that a Scammer would not take these all of these variables into account?

golddust

[abacus]

Originally Posted by newmdus

I have been toying with the idea of a hyip sustainability index. Assuming a HYIP is a ponzi as most are, do you think that a calculated score based on membership increase and payout percentage would be helpful for choosing when to get in and out.

For example:

[(membership date 2-membership date 1)/days between date 1 and 2] X (days to obtain gain/days between date 1 and 2)
__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ______
(% gain)/(days to obtain gain)



Note: I have left this uncondensed for clarity (I hope)

As a programs HSI goes up one would enter and as it goes down would exit. This could also be used along with other DD to rate various HYIPs against one another. This method would require checking membership stats regularly on HYIP sites and constantly updating the HSI. What do you think? Is anything similar to this available already? Any input would be appreciated.

Mark

good idea!thanks

[nadeem2u]

I don't step into an HYIP if the total withdrawals are more than the 50% of total deposits. But some games do last till 90%.

[transparent]

Originally Posted by golddust

... that IS the point.

Or, are you suggesting that a Scammer would not take these all of these variables into account?

golddust

not only too many variables to make anything but hunches, but it's impossible determine the values for any of those variables.. only the scammer himself know s the true respend etc values.

[maxilink]

And, even if you overcome the problems of collecting valid information, on a large number of variables, across a large number of ponzi HYIPs, your analysis may very well yield good valid trends and pointers for a 'population' of HYIPs, BUT that will never mean anything very much when you try to apply it to an 'individual' within that population!

Example "SMOKING CAUSES LUNG CANCER" - may be a true and verifiable statement when applied to a large number of people (population). - But within that population you will find eighty year old individuals who have had smoke coming out of their ears since they were ten - but don't have lung cancer. And others who contracted lung cancer by working in a bar where other people were smoking, and died at thirty-five. And every variation in between those extremes. So you can't predict which person (individual) is going to sucumb - or when!

There are lots of HYIPs which 'should have failed by now', and others have failed which 'should still be going' - much to our surprise!

The 'average' is not the same as 'typical' - and in fact you may never find an 'individual' who has 'average' characteristics! (The average citizen of the USA has about one tit, and one testicle!! - If you want to get a little bit crude! - But there are not many of them about!)

The application of broadly sampled statistics to individuals is always tricky, and usually futile. And it gets worse, when the 'population' is given the 'statistics' and starts to use them to alter their own behaviour! (As some posters have observed.)

This subject is 'interesting' and intellectualy stimulating - but 'useless'!

[regurgitate]

I don t beleive the stats. Maybe the admin scammed little money of some ones