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  #1  
Old 07-29-2009, 11:18 AM
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EURJPY Daily Forecast for Crosses: July 29
The EURJPY failed to continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair bottomed at 132.88 and closed at 133.93. It was technically a mess where price seemed to had a valid breakout from the resistance trendline but then retreated back below the trendline and now testing the bullish trendline support as seen at h4 chart below. A violation to that trendline support should set up a bearish view. Immediate support is seen at 132.90. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure testing 131.50 area. Initial resistance at 134.60.
USDJPY Daily Forecast: July 29
The USDJPY failed to maintain bullish view by fell back below 94.60 yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the price is now testing the trendline support. A breakdown to the downside should set us a bearish view back towards 92.70 area. Immediate support at 93.70. Only break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure.
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  #2  
Old 07-30-2009, 03:40 AM
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  #3  
Old 07-30-2009, 11:32 AM
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EURUSD Daily Forecast: July 30
The EURUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday. As you can see on h4 chart below, the broadening formation has been violated to the downside and break below 1.4050 suggests potential bearish outlook. This fact should trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.3870 and even key level 1.3750. However CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart so watch out for potential upside pullback testing 1.4050 and 1.4120 resistance area. Break above 1.4120 should be seen as bearish scenario failure.
GBPUSD Daily Forecast: July 30
The GBPUSD continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday. The rising wedge formation provided us a good bearish signal in nearest term. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.6250 area. However, please remember that above 1.6000, the medium term remains unclear so we have to be very careful. We need consistent move below 1.6380/50 area to confirm bearish scenario. Immediate resistance at 1.6468 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should be seen as bearish scenario failure.
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  #4  
Old 07-31-2009, 03:42 AM
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USD/JPY Daily Forecast: July 31
The USDJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. The triple top formation has been violated to the upside indicating potential bullish outlook testing 96.50 – 97.00 area. However it’s still too early for bullish outlook in medium term since actually the pair is still below the trendline resistance. The current bullish momentum might be strong enough to test the trendline resistance but until it is broken, the bullish scenario is not confirmed yet. In nearest term, as long as the pair stay above 95.30 area, I prefer a bullish outlook. But once traded below that area, we should see further bearish pullback.
Daily Forecast for Crosses: July 31 EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 134.87 and closed at 134.40. On h4 chart below we can see that technical mess continue as the pair now back above the trendline indicating indecisive, market hesitation and unclear direction. What is the best thing to do in this situation? Nothing. Just stay away from the market until we have a clear direction. Immediate resistance at 134.90. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 136.08 area. Initial support at 133.20.
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  #5  
Old 07-31-2009, 01:19 PM
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GBPJPY Forecast 31/07
The GBPJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the rising wedge bearish scenario has failed as the price maintain position convincingly above the trendline. This fact should be seen as potential bullish outlook at least testing 158.60 area. However, CCI about to cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pullback testing 157.00 – 156.50 support area. Break below that area should be seen as potential bullish failure.
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/wp-cont...gbpjpyh418.jpg
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  #6  
Old 08-01-2009, 03:20 AM
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  #7  
Old 08-03-2009, 10:37 AM
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EURUSD Forecast: Weekly Focus on NFP, Bullish Intraday Bias Testing 1.4336 Key Level

Weekly outlook: The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum on better than expected US GDP data on Friday, topped at 1.4278 and closed at 1.4255. Note that the medium term outlook remains neutral as we still trapped in range-bound market. This week, I will focus on NFP number on Friday. If NFP data shows positive result, I believe we should see a breakout from the range market and should set up a bullish scenario at least towards 1.4700 area. However if NFP data is disappointing, Greenback should edges up as risk aversion should rises.

Intraday outlook:
The nearest term outlook is bullish and we should see further upside pressure testing 1.4336 key level. However, as you can see on h1 chart below, CCI is heading down and about to cross the 100 line down so watch out for potential downside pullback testing 1.4150/80 support area. As long as the pair stay above that area, I prefer a bullish scenario.

GBPUSD Forecast: Breakout or Double Top?

The GBPUSD finally break above key level 1.6660 on Friday, topped at 1.6732 and closed at 1.6709 on a better than expected GDP data. Usually, a breakout from a long period of range market would produce significant bullish momentum. However, as shown on h1 chart below, we seem to have potential double top formation around 1.6750 area as a potential warning of a downside pullback. Here is what I have in mind: although the nearest bias is strongly bullish, I will wait for a clear break above 1.6750 area for a bullish confirmation . A failure to move above that area should lead us to a downside correction back towards 1.6660. CCI about to cross the 100 line down on h1 chart suggesting potential downside rebound.
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  #8  
Old 08-04-2009, 10:37 AM
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04/08/09
The EURUSD finally made a breakout from range-bound market, traded consistently above key level 1.4336 yesterday. The pair topped at 1.4443 and closed at 1.4418. On daily chart below we can see that after made a false breakdown below the broadening formation the pair whipsawed to the upside and made a breakout to the upside. For me, technically this fact is a bullish confirmation. Now we should have a bullish bias both in medium and nearest term. Nearest bullish target is seen at 1.4500 and 1.4590 area while medium bullish target is seen at 1.4719, December 18 2008 high. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h1 chart so watch out for a potential downside correction testing 1.4336 support area.

GBPUSD
After break above 1.6750 resistance area, the GBPUSD continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 1.6986 and closed at 1.6935. If wee look back on daily chart below, after started a bullish run since June 11, the pair has been traded in range area/consolidation (rectangle) for 8 weeks. So, I believe this breakout should trigger significant bullish continuation. Now we should have bullish bias both on medium and nearest term. Nearest target is seen at 1.7100/50 area while medium target is seen at 1.7450 – 1.7500 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h1 chart so watch out for potential downside correction testing 1.6850/10 support area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone in nearest term but as long as the pair able to stay above 1.6750 medium outlook remains bullish.
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  #9  
Old 08-05-2009, 09:41 AM
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EUR/USD.
Markets are expectig good numbers from factory orders and bad employment. If the employment will not be as bad as expected we might see another break up in SP500 and OIL. As a result there will be a high probability to see EURUSD above 1.4450 or higher.
Still, a correction is expected very soon in SP500. Maybe this correction will take place Friday, after NFP.
So I see limited upside potential for EURUSD on short term (today, maybe tomorrow) and chances to a retrace back to 1.41 - 1.42 next week.
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  #10  
Old 08-06-2009, 10:33 AM
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EUR/USD - Euro Dollar 6/8
Above 1.4271 since May, 2009
Same scenario as the British pound the European currency break and close above 1.4271 key resistance level for the first time since May 2009
As we can see on the chart above, once the pair breaks above that level it continue to push higher around 150 pips reaching as high as 1.4415 resistance level
We have to keep an eye on that level which represents a strong resistance level in the meantime and if it didn’t hold the pair will continue to push higher targeting 1.4500 physiological resistance level
06/08/2009 Crude Oil / WTI
71.89 hold , watch out
As all the stocks across the board pushed higher for the third day the oil prices continue to push higher too testing 71.89 resistance level but without breaking it to the upside till now
As the dollar falls across the board the oil prices is expected to continue its way to the upside as its trading above 55 days moving average all the way to retest 72.50 resistance level soon,
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