Thought you may like to know. If you took every Afl game and took the line bet for the underdog for every round of the season at $100 at an average price of $1.90. Prices on betfair higher you would have ended up $3640 ahead at the end of the season. Not picking and choosing matches just betting on every game. I'm looking forward to checking out the NRL next season and the basketball to see if it returns just as well. It seems backing the underdog at the line gives you a massive advantage in the long run!
Oh and what I forgot to ask has anyone noticed any similar trends with backing the underdog at the line whether it's basketball,icehockey, baseball and rugby ect
ie the underdog gets up at the line in Australian rules football 64.36 percent of the time based on 176 games this reason.
Well,i have gone through Australian rules betting,they seems quite interesting.
I've noticed different types of betting at bet republic,which is fast making a name for itself as a site where those who love to betl can get great analysis and picks
What do you mean "gets up at the line"? Are you saying 64% of AFL games last season were won by the underdog? I find that hard to believe. Where are those stats?
What do you mean "gets up at the line"? Are you saying 64% of AFL games last season were won by the underdog? I find that hard to believe. Where are those stats?
What I meant was that if you took the underdog at the line bet. So the underdog has a head start to make the game even(Not to win) in every game this season 64% of the time you would have won the bet.
On the other hand if you took the underdog to win outright you would have only won 31.25% of the time. Not nearly as good? If you don't believe me have a go next season and see how you fair. I checked this out every week of the AFL season myself. My next venture is to see if there are similar outcomes in other sports.
What I meant was that if you took the underdog at the line bet. So the underdog has a head start to make the game even(Not to win) in every game this season 64% of the time you would have won the bet.
On the other hand if you took the underdog to win outright you would have only won 31.25% of the time. Not nearly as good? If you don't believe me have a go next season and see how you fair. I checked this out every week of the AFL season myself. My next venture is to see if there are similar outcomes in other sports.
This may have worked for the season just ended but you would have lost money in previous years and would likely lose money if you did this next year....
Never forget that the only system that works is picking winners
This may have worked for the season just ended but you would have lost money in previous years and would likely lose money if you did this next year....
Never forget that the only system that works is picking winners
okosh. Have you done this in years pAST? Do you know where I can look up the stats on years gone? They were very consistant and steady all year.
Danrop: Trying to find out where I can check find archive line results for Afl. I will be doing a similar test with other sports
Interesting stats - have you backtested past last year?
Do you know where you can access archived odds and lines? I know where to find it for US sports but cant find it for Aust sports. I want to test out a system on AFL, NRL and Super14.
Thanks Okosh. the line betting link I think has to do with their betting success and doesn't state what they bet on. Anyway if the line bet was for the underdog their stats are very wrong. 54% when my stats(which I did religously every week) were at about 64%
I made a mistake saying NBA I meant NBL. I looked on betfair and there were no line bets available for the Tiger Breakers game. GGRRRRRR. I didn't check Sportbet or Centre bet which I will next round. They definanlty have line bets in the NRL so there 340 odd potential bets ;o)
Loved the betfair Link. Thanks. It will make a massive difference when Australian betfair users can bet on the run during sprting events online. It's such a disadvantage for us!
Australian rules betting
ʎɐqǝ uo pɹɐoqʎǝʞ ɐ ʎnq ı ǝɯıʇ ʇsɐן ǝɥʇ sı sıɥʇ 
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